As Bihar heads toward Assembly elections likely to be held in October–November this year, a recent opinion poll conducted by research agency InkInsight has highlighted sharp demographic divides in voter preferences. While the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) finds overwhelming support among women voters, the younger population is leaning towards Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) leader Tejashwi Yadav as their preferred Chief Minister.
The survey, carried out between April 1 and April 30, 2025, gathered responses from 5,145 participants across 194 out of Bihar’s 243 assembly constituencies. Branded as “Bihar’s First & Biggest Opinion Poll Tracker”, the study sheds light on crucial trends that could shape the upcoming electoral contest.
One of the most significant findings is the gender-based preference shift: about 60.4% of female respondents expressed their intent to vote for the NDA, while only 28.4% sided with the Mahagathbandhan, a coalition led by the RJD and Congress. Among women, Nitish Kumar emerged as the most popular CM candidate, with 45% support, compared to 31% for Tejashwi Yadav.
Male Voters Inclined Towards Mahagathbanndhan
Conversely, male voters appeared more inclined toward the Mahagathbandhan. A majority of them, 45.8%, selected Tejashwi Yadav as their preferred Chief Minister, pointing to a clear gender divide in leadership preferences.
Interestingly, the youth electorate in the 18–29 age group displayed a nuanced stance. Though 44.6% of young voters showed preference for the NDA, and 39.5% supported the Mahagathbandhan, Tejashwi Yadav outshone his rivals as the top CM pick among this group, with 42% backing him, while Nitish Kumar trailed with 27.7%.
Alternative candidates like Prashant Kishor of Jan Suraaj garnered just 2% support from the youth. Chirag Paswan of the LJP received 7%, while Samrat Chaudhary (BJP) drew 1.61%. Additionally, 13.39% of youth wanted a “new face” from the BJP.
Age Wise Breakdown Shows Changing Voter Dynamics
The age-wise breakdown further illustrates changing voter dynamics. While Tejashwi leads among those aged 18–29 and 30–39, Nitish Kumar maintains popularity among people aged 40–59. Intriguingly, in the 60+ demographic, Tejashwi once again takes the lead, defying traditional age-related political assumptions.
In the broader picture, Tejashwi Yadav is currently the most preferred candidate for the post of Chief Minister across all age groups, securing 39% support, compared to 34% for Nitish Kumar. This finding mirrors earlier data released by a C-Voter survey, which also ranked Tejashwi as Bihar’s top CM choice. In that survey, Prashant Kishor was second, and Nitish Kumar came in third.
As things stand, Bihar is headed for a two-way electoral battle between the NDA comprising the BJP and JD(U) and the Mahagathbandhan, led by the RJD and Congress. The Election Commission has yet to declare an official timeline, but all eyes are on the coming months as these alliances strategise to win over key voter segments.
With women showing a strong inclination towards the NDA and youth favoring Tejashwi Yadav for the CM post, the 2025 Bihar Assembly elections are expected to be closely fought, with personality-driven politics playing a significant role.
