Long-term trends break as the carbon dioxide emissions from India’s electricity sector, in the first half of this year, show a marginal decline compared to the same period last year. A new analysis revealed that it is the first time that emissions from any sector in India over a half-year period have dropped. Such a dip was previously noticed only during the Covid years.

This can be attributed to mild summer temperatures and good monsoon rainfall.

The analysis made by Bengaluru-based Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) for Carbon Brief, a UK-based climate-focused publication, reveals that carbon dioxide emissions from India’s electricity sector between January and June this year dropped 1% compared to the first half of 2024. This is a major development coming from the largest contributor to India’s greenhouse gases—the electricity sector—which accounts for almost 40% of the country’s annual emissions.

India’s Emission Rate

India’s emissions are the third largest in the world and have been constantly rising over the years in sync with its expanding economy. But this is the first time that a drop has been witnessed, even at the sectoral level. The flattening of India’s emission trajectory will also have a global impact.

The same analysis suggests that emissions from India’s electricity sector could peak by 2030, much earlier than expected. New capacity additions in non-fossil fuel-based electricity—like investing in renewable, nuclear, and hydro energy—are expected to outpace the growth in power demand by that time. A flattening trajectory might also mean that India may not need to deploy additional coal-based electricity to meet the increase in electricity demand.

Alongside the growing ability of solar and wind energy to meet peak demand, electricity generation from these sources will help in reducing dependence on coal-powered electricity and the emissions associated with it.

The analysis also suggested that the 1% drop in power sector emissions in the first half of this year could be attributed to lower electricity demand and faster growth in the generation of green electricity. This was mainly because of a milder summer season this year compared to 2024, along with plenty of rain showers in the pre-monsoon March–May period. Relatively lower temperatures and higher rainfall reduced the need for air conditioning, which usually accounts for about 10% of India’s electricity demand during the summer season.

Anubha Agarwal, the Indian analyst at CREA and co-author of the analysis, pointed out that the drop in emissions was caused by structural factors like the accelerated deployment of renewable energy. India added 25.1 gigawatts of clean energy capacity in the first half of 2025, which is about 70% more than last year’s record. This record-breaking deployment of renewable energy also had a direct impact on electricity generation.

Further, the analysis found that total power generation in the first half of this year increased by 9 terawatt-hours compared to the corresponding period last year. However, fossil fuel-based generation, mainly from coal, fell by 29 terawatt-hours. Generation from solar sources increased by 17 terawatt-hours, wind rose by 9 terawatt-hours, hydropower also increased by 9 terawatt-hours, while nuclear rose by 3 terawatt-hours. This higher generation from cleaner sources contributed directly to the drop in emissions this year.

Energy Minister Sets Pipeline

The Minister of New and Renewable Energy, Prahlad Joshi, said on Tuesday that India installed 23 gigawatts of non-fossil fuel electricity capacity in the first five months of this fiscal year, between April and August. According to the minister, this is likely to double in the remaining part of the year.

“The ongoing clean energy expansion over the next five years is expected to shape the structural trend in an important way, likely leading to a peak in power sector emissions by then,” said Agarwal to the national media.

The current national target is 500 gigawatts of installed non-fossil fuel electricity capacity by 2030. Of this, 252 gigawatts have already been achieved. Further renewable energy projects are in the pipeline and, if executed before 2030, can take the installed capacity to 482 gigawatts, according to the analysis.