The current El Niño phenomenon is likely to adversely affect India’s fisheries sector in the months ahead. Experts have raised concerns regarding reduced catches of crucial commercial fish species, including the Indian Oil Sardine and Indian Mackerel, particularly across the North Indian Ocean. A recent forecast from the Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services (INCOIS) suggests that prolonged warming of ocean waters may lead to significant changes in fish populations and marine ecosystems.

Research indicates that the warming conditions linked to El Niño may result in a modest decline in landings of both Indian Oil Sardine and Indian Mackerel during the upcoming fishing season. In addition to the anticipated decrease in the number of catches, researchers have noted that the average size of these fish species is also likely to diminish due to changing environmental conditions.

According to the INCOIS report, extended periods of warming, along with alterations in ocean productivity and shifts in fish habitats, could significantly change the distribution patterns of commercially vital species. These factors threaten the sustainability of fisheries, which rely on stable marine environments for healthy fish populations.

Implications For Marine Ecosystems And Coastal Communities

Sardines and mackerel play a crucial role in India’s fishing industry. They support the livelihoods of thousands of fishermen and contribute significantly to seafood markets, particularly along the western coast. Changes in sea surface temperatures are also expected to impact nutrient availability in the ocean, subsequently reducing plankton production, which serves as the foundation of the marine food chain.

INCOIS scientists have warned that elevated sea surface temperatures and increased upper-ocean heat content could diminish marine productivity in various regions. As a result, fish populations may be forced to migrate to cooler waters or deeper areas, complicating efforts to locate and capture them effectively.

The potential impacts are not confined to fisheries alone. Coral reef ecosystems in ecologically delicate areas such as Lakshadweep, the Gulf of Mannar, and the Andaman and Nicobar Islands may suffer from heightened thermal stress. Sustained warming raises the likelihood of coral bleaching, which not only threatens biodiversity but also jeopardises economies that rely on tourism.

Maritime Operations And Weather Conditions

The INCOIS report outlined mixed consequences for maritime operations as well. While relatively calm conditions and extended fair-weather intervals in the Arabian Sea might favour shipping, fishing, and offshore activities, the Bay of Bengal is projected to experience rougher conditions characterised by stronger wind-generated waves during certain times of the season.

Moreover, warmer ocean conditions may create a conducive environment for extreme weather events, thereby heightening the risk of coastal erosion, flooding, and storm surges during intense storms. These factors underline the necessity for stakeholders to adapt to changing climatic conditions in order to mitigate potential damages.

In light of these developments, INCOIS has advised fishermen, maritime operators, tourism stakeholders, and disaster management agencies to remain vigilant and closely monitor ocean advisories. These include forecasts for potential fishing zones, updates on ocean state, alerts regarding high wave activity, and warnings related to storm surges. As El Niño continues to reshape oceanic conditions in the Indian Ocean, adherence to these advisories will be essential for safety and economic sustainability.

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