The recent Israeli elections did not yield a decisive victor, as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu failed to secure a majority. His Likud-led right-wing bloc emerged with 53 seats in the 120-member Knesset, falling short of the 61 needed to form a government. The opposition, led by former military chief Gadi Eisenkot, garnered 48 seats, while Arab parties achieved a record 19 seats, positioning them as potential kingmakers in the political arena.

Both Netanyahu and Eisenkot have previously ruled out alliances with the Arab-led parties, namely The Joint List and Ra’am. However, Eisenkot has recently indicated a willingness to consider collaboration under certain conditions. This shift in stance could significantly influence the formation of the next government, as neither bloc can secure a majority without the support of the Arab parties.

Israeli President Isaac Herzog is expected to initiate the process by consulting with Netanyahu, as the leader of the largest party. Netanyahu will have a period of up to 42 days to attempt to form a government. Should he fail, the opportunity will pass to Eisenkot, followed by a third candidate if necessary. If no government is established, fresh elections will be called.

Potential Scenarios for Government Formation

One possible scenario involves Gadi Eisenkot forming a coalition with the Arab parties, which would provide a comfortable majority of 67 seats in the Knesset. However, such an alliance remains unlikely due to previously expressed reservations from Eisenkot and his allies regarding collaboration with Arab parties, particularly concerning differing views on Hamas and the ongoing conflict in Gaza.

Another potential outcome is a national unity government comprising both Netanyahu and Eisenkot. This would necessitate compromises from both sides, particularly from Netanyahu, who may need to distance himself from far-right allies. However, Eisenkot has consistently stated his reluctance to serve under Netanyahu, citing security failures and concerns over democratic integrity as key reasons.

The third scenario could see Netanyahu attempting to attract defectors from Eisenkot’s bloc, including former allies like Naftali Bennett or Avigdor Lieberman. This approach may prove challenging, as Netanyahu’s far-right and ultra-Orthodox supporters have shown steadfast loyalty over the years.

Implications for India-Israel Relations

The outcome of the Israeli elections may have significant implications for India-Israel relations, which have strengthened considerably in recent years. The rapport between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Netanyahu has been a cornerstone of this partnership, fostering collaboration across various sectors, including technology, defence, and agriculture.

India accounts for 40 per cent of Israel’s total arms exports, relying heavily on Israeli military technology, including missiles, air defence systems, and drones. The relationship has evolved beyond mere defence ties, with both nations engaging in joint ventures and technology sharing, particularly in line with India’s Atmanirbhar initiative.

Should Netanyahu fail to maintain his position as Prime Minister, the approach of a new leader towards India will be closely scrutinised. However, historical ties suggest that a change in leadership is unlikely to disrupt the strong strategic partnership that has been cultivated over the years, even under previous leaders like Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid.

In summary, the political uncertainty in Israel presents a complex landscape for Netanyahu and his potential successors. As negotiations unfold, the impact on India-Israel relations will be a crucial area of observation, given the longstanding strategic alliance between the two nations.

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