Bihar’s assembly election count delivered a dramatic sweep for the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) on Thursday, with early numbers placing the coalition far beyond its own forecasted benchmark. As trends solidified, the NDA held leads in 192 seats, comfortably surpassing Union Home Minister Amit Shah’s assertion during the campaign that the alliance would secure “over 160 seats” and form the next government with a two-thirds majority.

Amit Shah’s Forecast and His Stand on Alliance Unity

During multiple media interactions including interviews with NDTV and India Today TV—Shah had repeatedly maintained that the contest in Bihar favoured the NDA. He argued that all five partners the BJP, JDU, LJP (Ram Vilas), HAM, and RLM were functioning cohesively. Dismissing talk of disagreements, he likened the coalition to the “five Pandavas” from the Mahabharat, emphasising that the alliance was united and confident of victory.

Counting Trends Validate Pre-Poll Statements

The early stages of counting appeared to align squarely with Shah’s confidence. By 10:15 am, the NDA had already crossed the 160-seat threshold, leading in 162 constituencies, while the RJD–Congress-led Mahagathbandhan was ahead in 77 seats. A majority of exit polls reviewed earlier had also leaned in favour of the NDA, though some predicted a closer race than what unfolded once counting began.

Party-Wise Breakdown and JDU’s Dramatic Rebound

Within the sweeping coalition lead, the BJP emerged as the dominant force with 84 leads, followed closely by Chief Minister Nitish Kumar’s JDU, which was ahead in 76 seats. Chirag Paswan’s LJP (Ram Vilas) made notable strides with 22 leads, and Jitan Ram Manjhi’s HAM led in four constituencies, collectively propelling the NDA far past Shah’s projected figure.

A significant subplot of this election is the resurgence of Nitish Kumar’s JDU. After being relegated to junior status in 2020, when it won only 43 seats compared with the BJP’s 74, the party’s current performance suggests a restoration of its earlier political dominance.

RJD Faces a Decline From Its 2020 High

The counting trends also signal a setback for the Rashtriya Janata Dal, which had emerged as the single-largest party in 2020 with 75 seats one more than the BJP at the time. This time, the party appears headed for a notably weaker finish, losing its position at the top.