In early September 2025, at a moment when India-United States ties were visibly strained, National Security Adviser Ajit Doval travelled to Washington with a blunt message. During a private meeting with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Doval conveyed that India was keen to resume negotiations on a trade agreement but would not accept being pressured or publicly criticised, according to officials familiar with the discussions.

The meeting took place shortly after Prime Minister Narendra Modi had been photographed warmly interacting with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping at a multilateral gathering in China, an image that drew sharp reactions in Washington. With tempers fraying and tariffs biting, New Delhi chose quiet diplomacy over public sparring.

Doval’s Message Amid Tariffs And Rhetoric

Officials said Doval told Rubio that India had faced hostile US administrations in the past and was prepared to wait out the term of President Donald Trump if necessary. India, he stressed, would not be “bullied” into a trade deal through threats or insults. At the same time, New Delhi wanted relations to stabilise and for negotiations to restart in a constructive atmosphere.

At that point, India was reeling from a barrage of criticism from Trump, including remarks calling India a “dead economy” and accusing it of indirectly financing Russia’s war in Ukraine by buying discounted Russian oil. In August, the US had imposed tariffs of up to 50 percent on certain Indian goods, escalating tensions further.

According to people aware of the meeting, Doval also urged Washington to tone down public criticism of India so that both sides could rebuild trust. The emphasis, officials said, was on long-term strategic alignment rather than short-term transactional gains.

Signs Of Thaw After A Quiet Intervention

The first visible signs of easing tensions emerged within weeks. On September 16, Trump called Modi to wish him on his birthday and publicly praised him for doing a “tremendous job”. By the end of the year, the two leaders had spoken several more times as officials quietly worked to bring tariffs down and revive trade talks.

Neither the Ministry of External Affairs nor the Prime Minister’s Office has commented on the substance of Doval’s meeting with Rubio. The US State Department, in response to queries, said it does not disclose details of private diplomatic discussions, in line with standard practice.

The behind-the-scenes engagement appeared to culminate this week when Trump announced that he had reached a trade agreement with Modi, reducing tariffs on Indian goods to 18 percent and scrapping an additional 25 percent duty imposed over India’s purchase of Russian oil.

Trade Deal Surprise And Unanswered Questions

Trump claimed that India had agreed to purchase $500 billion worth of US goods, switch to Venezuelan oil and eliminate tariffs on American imports. However, the Modi government has not confirmed these details, and neither side has released formal documentation outlining the terms of the agreement.

The announcement itself caught many in New Delhi off guard. Senior officials in the commerce and foreign ministries said they were unaware that a leaders’ call had been scheduled that day, and some could not immediately verify key aspects of the deal when contacted by reporters.

Despite the surprise, analysts say the agreement reflects months of intense negotiations carried out largely away from the public eye. “The past year has been one where negotiators on both sides worked feverishly to get us to this point,” said Nisha Biswal of The Asia Group, describing the deal as mutually beneficial.

Strategic Calculations In New Delhi

For New Delhi, the overriding calculation has been strategic rather than purely commercial. Officials say India needs US capital, advanced technology and military cooperation to counter China and to meet Modi’s ambition of turning India into a developed economy by 2047. In that context, Trump’s presidency was viewed as a temporary phase rather than a permanent shift.

Relations had deteriorated sharply after Trump claimed credit in May for defusing a brief military clash between India and Pakistan, a claim Modi publicly rejected. A tense phone call in June and Modi’s decision to skip certain international engagements underscored the chill in ties.

Yet India never considered a rupture with Washington. “India-US relations remain ‘sticky’ because of deep institutional and people-to-people links,” said Chietigj Bajpaee of Chatham House, adding that earlier optimism about the relationship had simply become more measured.

Diplomacy Beyond Washington

India has also used the period of strain with the US to diversify its global partnerships. Modi rolled out the red carpet for Putin in December, underscoring Russia’s continued relevance as a defence supplier and diplomatic partner. New Delhi also concluded long-pending trade agreements with the European Union and the United Kingdom, signalling that it would not hinge its economic future on a single partner.

The arrival of US Ambassador Sergio Gor in December helped reset the tone. Gor, a close ally of Trump and Rubio, publicly described differences between the two countries as disputes among “real friends” and announced India’s proposed inclusion in a US-led supply chain initiative.

External Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, currently in the US, has held talks with Rubio on trade and critical supply chains, further reinforcing the sense of a cautious but real rapprochement.

US Still Central To India’s Economic Ambitions

Despite diversifying ties, the US remains India’s largest export destination, accounting for around a fifth of its overseas shipments. Sectors such as electronics and mobile phones, central to Modi’s manufacturing push, are heavily dependent on the American market. US firms have also pledged billions of dollars in investment in India, particularly in artificial intelligence and digital infrastructure.

Analysts say Doval’s message to Rubio in September captured the essence of India’s approach: strategic autonomy combined with pragmatic engagement. India would assert its red lines, remain patient under pressure, and keep the door open for cooperation when circumstances allowed.

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