Saudi Arabia is reportedly enhancing its ballistic missile production capabilities, which may lead to the development of larger and more powerful weapons. This advancement could bolster its capacity to target various locations across the region, raising alarms about a potential nuclear arms race with Iran. An analysis of satellite imagery by US researchers, as cited by Reuters, indicates ongoing construction at a missile complex located approximately 200 km west of Riyadh.

The research, conducted by analysts Sam Lair and Michael Duitsman from the Foreign Policy Research Institute, focused on commercial satellite images taken between April 2025 and September 2026. They identified a new structure within the Al-Dawadmi missile complex that appears to contain casting pits for manufacturing solid-fuel missile motors. This new facility is reportedly at least twice the size of the existing one, suggesting it could facilitate the production of larger missiles.

According to the researchers, the complex could potentially begin missile production by the end of 2026, contingent upon the installation of necessary equipment. This expansion may also impact Saudi Arabia’s ongoing conflict with Yemen’s Houthi movement, which has frequently targeted Saudi territory with missiles and drones. A more robust domestic missile production capability could provide Riyadh with greater flexibility in maintaining its arsenal and executing retaliatory actions.

Concerns Over Nuclear Arms Race with Iran

The growth of Saudi Arabia’s ballistic missile programme is prompting concerns about the possibility of a nuclear arms race with Iran. As Riyadh seeks a civilian nuclear cooperation agreement with Washington that would permit uranium enrichment, questions arise regarding whether enhanced missile capabilities could serve as delivery systems for nuclear warheads should Saudi Arabia decide to pursue them.

Currently, there is no public evidence to suggest that Saudi Arabia is developing nuclear weapons. However, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has previously stated in a 2018 interview that the kingdom would consider developing nuclear weapons if Iran were to acquire them. A report by Reuters on July 22 concerning the US-Saudi nuclear agreement has further intensified fears related to the kingdom’s nuclear ambitions.

The US-Saudi nuclear cooperation agreement, announced on July 22, would allow Saudi Arabia to enrich uranium and reprocess nuclear waste. Notably, the agreement does not require Saudi Arabia to adopt the International Atomic Energy Agency’s Additional Protocol, which grants inspectors broader authority to investigate potential undeclared nuclear activities.

While Saudi Arabia asserts that its nuclear programme is intended for peaceful purposes, non-proliferation advocates warn that the technologies involved could lead to the production of weapons-usable material.

Implications of Missile Development

The potential for a nuclear arms race between Saudi Arabia and Iran remains contingent on various factors. While the expansion of Saudi Arabia’s missile capabilities and its civilian nuclear initiatives do not definitively indicate an intention to develop nuclear weapons, the kingdom’s stated goal of matching Iran’s capabilities if Tehran acquires a nuclear bomb has heightened concerns.

This situation raises the prospect that an Iranian nuclear weapon could instigate a broader regional proliferation crisis. Researchers have also suggested that Saudi Arabia may be producing Chinese-designed DF-15 ballistic missiles, as indicated by footage showing the wreckage of a Saudi-fired DF-15 in Yemen.

The exact type of missile being manufactured at the newly expanded facility remains unverified, but if the assessments are accurate, it would signify a deeper reliance on Chinese missile technology as Saudi Arabia aims to fortify its domestic defence industry. In summary, the developments surrounding Saudi Arabia’s missile production and nuclear plans are significant and warrant close observation.

As the region navigates complex geopolitical dynamics, the implications of these advancements could reverberate far beyond Saudi borders, influencing security and stability across the Middle East.

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