Kerala welcomed the southwest monsoon on June 4, but nearly three weeks later, the state is facing a substantial rainfall shortfall, creating concerns regarding water supply and electricity generation. According to recent data from the India Meteorological Department (IMD), Kerala has recorded 317.3 mm of rainfall against a normal expectation of 466.1 mm from June 4 to June 24, leaving a deficit of 32 per cent. This discrepancy persists even after the monsoon’s timely arrival and sporadic periods of intense rainfall.

Satellite imagery provided by INSAT-3DS on June 20 indicated concentrated cloud activity over eastern and northeastern India while much of peninsular India, including Kerala, remained relatively cloud-free. This situation illustrates the uneven distribution of monsoon precipitation experienced thus far during the season.

The sporadic nature of rainfall is becoming a pressing issue as the state’s challenges continue to mount. In light of the precipitation deficit, experts are investigating the underlying causes of this anomaly in monsoon behaviour.

Impact on Hydropower and Electricity Supply

The lack of consistent rainfall is starting to significantly affect various sectors, most notably hydropower generation. The Kerala State Electricity Board (KSEB) is compelled to buy power from external suppliers at higher market rates to fulfil demand. Current water levels in the state’s reservoirs have significantly dropped, with reservoir storage now at merely 21.22 per cent of capacity, a steep decline from 47 per cent during the same timeframe last year.

This decrease in reservoir levels not only impedes hydropower production but has also led authorities to impose minor power restrictions in certain regions during peak evening hours. Meteorologists assert that while monsoon rains are occurring, their irregularity disrupts the overall rainfall totals necessary to meet seasonal averages.

Forecasters from the IMD have announced that rainfall activity is anticipated to weaken further over the state on June 25 and 26. Although no specific weather warnings have been issued for any districts, isolated thunderstorms and light to moderate showers remain a possibility for these dates.

Future Outlook and Potential Relief

While current conditions seem grim, there may be a glimmer of hope on the horizon for Kerala. Weather officials predict an uptick in monsoon activity starting June 27, especially in the districts located in northern Kerala. This rebound is believed to be associated with an expected boost in moisture flow from the Arabian Sea and improving overall monsoon conditions along the west coast.

Kerala finds itself in a unique situation where, despite the monsoon’s arrival, the needed rainfall to replenish reservoirs and support power generation remains insufficient. The forthcoming days will play a pivotal role in determining whether the state can alleviate its growing rainfall deficit or if it will encounter more significant hurdles as the monsoon season progresses.

Authorities and individuals alike are closely monitoring the situation, hoping for a return to more consistent and abundant rainfall in the coming days to mitigate the challenges posed by the ongoing deficit.

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