Bangladesh goes to the polls on Thursday in a crucial general election, with intelligence assessments suggesting that Jamaat-e-Islami (JeI) could emerge as the frontrunner, pushing the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) into second place.

Voting began at 7:30 am local time across 299 of the country’s 300 parliamentary constituencies and will continue until 4:30 pm. Polling in one constituency was cancelled due to the death of a candidate. The counting of votes is expected to begin shortly after the voting concludes.

Hours before voting, reports of violence surfaced. The body of a Hindu man was found in Moulvibazar district on Wednesday night, while three persons were injured after a crude bomb exploded at a polling centre in Gopalganj district on Thursday morning.

The election is the first since the ouster of prime minister Sheikh Hasina in August 2024 following massive nationwide protests, and is being closely watched for signs of a major political shift.

Intelligence projections favour Jamaat

According to intelligence assessments, Jamaat is projected to secure around 92 of the 300 parliamentary seats and is strongly contesting in another 76 constituencies, many of them against the BNP.

Officials said the party has built a strong presence in districts such as Jessore, Bagerhat, Pabna, Sirajganj, Chapainawabganj, Rajshahi, Satkhira and Cox’s Bazar.

“Even a fortnight ago, the BNP appeared to be ahead, but the latest assessments suggest that Jamaat has moved into the lead,” an intelligence officer said.

While some analysts believe the BNP may still emerge as the single largest party, projections indicate that even in a weaker scenario, Jamaat could become the principal opposition force in the next Parliament.

Rise after political upheaval

Jamaat’s resurgence comes after the political change in August 2024 that removed the Awami League government and installed an interim administration under Mohammad Yunus. Since then, the party has expanded its grassroots network and regained political space.

The interim government lifted the ban on Jamaat and restored its registration, allowing it to contest the election. The party is currently leading an 11-party coalition and has emerged as a key rival to the BNP led by Tarique Rahman.

Historically, Jamaat’s best performance came in 1991, when it won 18 seats. It later joined the BNP-led coalition government between 2001 and 2006 with 17 seats in Parliament. The current projections, if realised, would mark the party’s strongest showing in decades.

Allegations of foreign support

In the run-up to the polls, claims circulated that Western powers, particularly the United States, were backing Jamaat. These allegations gained traction after reports of an alleged audio conversation involving an unidentified US diplomat discussing support for the party.

The US Embassy in Dhaka, however, denied favouring any political formation, stating it would work with whichever party the electorate chooses.

Intelligence sources have also alleged that Gulf-linked charities, including the Kuwait-based Revival of Islamic Heritage Society, provided funds for mosques and madrassas, some of which were allegedly diverted to support Jamaat. There have also been claims of financial backing from Turkish state or quasi-government networks.

Visible signs of organisational strength

Observers have pointed to visible changes at Jamaat’s headquarters in Dhaka’s Moghbazar area, which has recently undergone extensive renovation. Locals say the once dilapidated building now features modern interiors, new furniture and an elevator, and is frequently visited by diplomats, foreign journalists and party workers.

The election is widely seen as a decisive test of Jamaat’s political comeback after years of marginalisation during the 17-year rule of the Awami League, when the party was banned and several of its leaders were convicted for their roles in the 1971 war crimes.

If the projections hold, the party could either emerge as the leading force or become the principal opposition, reshaping Bangladesh’s political landscape in the post-Hasina era.

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