Discussions have long considered that future global conflicts could arise over water resources, particularly as drinking water becomes increasingly scarce. This precarious situation is most evident in the Gulf countries, where a desert climate exacerbates the availability of potable water. The ongoing conflict involving Iran, which reignited on February 28 with heightened tensions between the US, Israel, and Iran, has drawn global attention to the region’s energy infrastructure, yet a more pressing issue is the area’s precarious water supply.

Experts warn that the real toll of this escalating warfare may not be in oil reserves, but rather in the desalination plants crucial for providing freshwater to major cities across the Middle East. Recent events have seen escalating claims between the involved parties regarding attacks on these critical facilities.

Desalination Plants: The Lifeline of the Gulf

Desalination plants are essential for transforming high-salinity water into drinkable resources. Approximately 60% of the world’s desalination infrastructure is located in this region, making it disproportionately reliant on these facilities. Countries such as the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, and Kuwait depend heavily on desalination technology, making these plants high-value targets during armed conflict.

Measures used in warfare that affect water treatment facilities are considered attacks on civilian populations. However, the previous tacit agreement against targeting such infrastructure appears to be deteriorating as military engagements continue. Recently, Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi condemned what he described as a US-led strike damaging a desalination facility on Qeshm Island. The incident reportedly disrupted water supplies for 30 villages, leading to Iranian officials threatening retaliatory measures.

Escalating Tensions Amid Accusations

Both the US and Israel have firmly rejected Iran’s allegations, with US President Donald Trump downplaying claims related to the desalination facility. He stressed a broader condemnation of Iran’s governance during remarks at the Shield of the Americas Summit in Miami. Meanwhile, Iranian officials, including Parliament Speaker, have accused the US of facilitating military actions that directly endanger civilian water sources.

At the same time, collateral damage is impacting Gulf states. Bahrain’s Ministry of Interior recently accused Iran of conducting indiscriminate attacks, referencing a drone strike that caused destruction to a local desalination site. Sources in the UAE have also reported close calls and damage to facilities in Fujairah and concerns regarding attacks near Dubai’s strategic desalination complex.

The Imperative of Water Security in the Gulf

The Persian Gulf houses over 400 desalination facilities, contributing significantly to global freshwater production. Experts describe Gulf nations as “saltwater kingdoms,” underscoring a dual reality of dependence on technology and vulnerability to military actions. Regions such as Kuwait and the UAE rely on desalinated water for nearly all their drinking needs, with Saudi Arabia also substantially dependent on such processes.

Concerns grow regarding the implications of any disruption to these facilities. Previous intelligence assessments suggested that damage to key Saudi installations could lead to humanitarian crises within days. These worries now intersect with broader geopolitical tensions as Iranian tactics may include targeting water supply lines, an approach perceived as strategically advantageous despite the humanitarian implications.

Climate Challenges Faced by Iran

Ironically, while Iran can execute threats against neighboring states’ water supplies, it faces a water crisis of its own, exacerbated by years of drought. The country has long relied on inland water sources, making it less susceptible to the same vulnerabilities faced by its Gulf neighbors. This differing dependency highlights the complex dynamics influencing regional power relations.

As the world remains focused on oil and gas supplies, the situation presents significant concern over water, which may soon become a primary casualty of this conflict. Any strike on critical desalination plants would not only cripple regional economies but could also lead to immediate humanitarian crises and reshape the landscape of regional stability in the Middle East.

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