The recent passage of the “Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026” by the US House has created new challenges for countries engaged in the trade of Russian energy, including India. This legislation authorises the imposition of tariffs that could reach as high as 100% on entities purchasing Russian energy products. The timing of this bill is particularly noteworthy as Ukrainian attacks have begun to disrupt Russian refinery operations, intensifying the scrutiny on India’s increasing supply of refined fuel to Russia.

Under ongoing warfare, Ukrainian strikes have significantly impacted Russian energy infrastructure, contributing to challenges in domestic fuel supplies as well as in export capabilities. Reports suggest that Russia is struggling to maintain its fuel system, with a notable rise in refinery shutdowns linked to these assaults.

According to the Refinery Ledger, over eleven refinery shutdowns have been recorded following recent attacks. Concurrently, the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) indicates that Russian imports of oil products reached unprecedented levels, with India supplying approximately 70% of the total 172,000 tonnes of oil products imported in August. This emerging energy loop illustrates India’s crucial role in supplying Russia with necessary fuel amidst deteriorating domestic conditions.

India’s Role as a Key Supplier of Fuel

India has emerged as a vital source for Russian fuel, particularly in light of the ongoing attacks on Russian refineries. Following attacks that have left multiple facilities inactive, Moscow is reportedly looking to India to fulfil its energy requirements. The CREA’s findings reveal that the entire quantity of gasoline imported during this period was processed at Vadinar refinery in Gujarat, owned by Nayara Energy, with substantial Russian backing.

Vadinar has exclusively sourced crude oil from Russia, reinforcing its role in converting Russian crude into gasoline that is subsequently sent back to Russian markets. The efficiency of this process is marked by the simplicity of the logistical chain, where Russian crude travels to India, is refined, and then returned to Russia for use.

The situation presents a contradiction, with Russia effectively funding the processing of its own crude by a refinery it partially owns, reflecting the complexities of international trade under sanctions. The United States’ tariff policies may add another layer of complexity, obstructing this economic bridge between the two nations.

Impact of the Conflict on Russian Refineries

The ongoing conflict in Ukraine has adversely affected Russia’s refining capabilities. Reports from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) indicate that over 26 Russian refineries have been targetted since January 2026. The consequences of these strikes are evident, as refinery output has significantly declined due to repeated disruptions in processing capacity.

Intensive drone attacks have compromised critical refining infrastructure, exacerbating the country’s dependence on external sources for refined products. Kpler, a commodity intelligence firm, noted that Russian refinery runs dropped to approximately 3.80 million barrels per day by July, marking a significant decline compared to historical levels.

With a limited ability to export refined products and a distinct shift in energy trading patterns, Russia risks transitioning from a major exporter of fuels to a nation reliant on imports for certain refined products. As the global energy market continues to adapt, the ramifications of these changes on both Russia and its trading partners, like India, will be closely monitored in the months to come.

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