Delhi experienced overcast skies and rumbling thunder in the morning of July 4, leading the India Meteorological Department (IMD) to issue a yellow alert for the city. This warning indicates that residents should prepare for light to moderate rain accompanied by thunderstorms and gusty winds, which could reach speeds of 30 to 40 kilometres per hour. Areas such as New Delhi, Central Delhi, Shahdara, and North West Delhi are particularly affected by this forecast.

The IMD uses a four-tier warning system, where green signals normal conditions, yellow alerts to remain vigilant, orange indicates a need for preparation, and red signifies immediate action required. Although the alert suggests caution, it does not imply a catastrophic event is imminent.

Residents are advised to carry umbrellas and anticipate traffic disruptions along with potential waterlogging in lower-lying regions. Precautions include keeping a safe distance from trees and water bodies during thunderstorms to avoid lightning strikes.

Forecast and Impact of Monsoon on Delhi

The Southwest Monsoon made its entrance into Delhi around July 2, and rain is expected to persist throughout the weekend. The recent rainfall has already contributed to lowering maximum temperatures in the city to approximately 33 degrees Celsius, which is over four degrees below normal. Forecasts suggest that daytime temperatures will continue to hover between 33 and 38 degrees Celsius until July 8.

The rainfall patterns in Delhi are characterised by sudden, localised downpours rather than steady rain throughout the day. Moisture-laden winds from the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal flow into north India, where they heat up, rise, and eventually lead to the formation of thunderclouds. This unpredictable nature of rainfall means that certain neighbourhoods could experience significant rainfall while adjacent areas remain dry.

It is noteworthy that the current local weather phenomenon is influenced by broader climatic conditions. Moisture from nearby water bodies, such as the Arabian Sea, plays a crucial role in these precipitation patterns.

States at Risk of Heavy Rainfall

The weather system affecting Delhi originates from a low-pressure area situated over the northwest Bay of Bengal. This region, where air pressure is lower than neighbouring areas, causes intense moisture to be released as rainfall. The IMD predicts substantial rainfall not only in Delhi but also in states like Gujarat, Konkan and Goa, Madhya Maharashtra, Odisha, and West Madhya Pradesh during this period.

Additionally, areas such as Coastal Karnataka, East Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, East Rajasthan, Telangana, and Vidarbha are under observation for similar weather patterns. According to IMD classifications, ‘heavy rain’ signifies between 64.5 to 115.5 mm in a 24-hour period, while ‘very heavy rain’ accounts for up to 204.4 mm, and ‘extremely heavy rain’ is anything exceeding that benchmark.

Historical data indicates that these low-pressure systems are the primary drivers of significant rainfall during the monsoon season, as identified through a study published in the Journal of Climate. The interaction between moist sea winds and geographical features, such as the Western Ghats, enhances these rainfall events through a process known as orographic lifting.

Safety Measures at Sea

Fishermen and maritime enthusiasts are cautioned against venturing into the Arabian Sea or the Bay of Bengal due to squally winds ranging from 45 to 55 kmph, with gusts potentially reaching up to 65 kmph. This phenomenon is linked to the Somali Jet, a robust low-level wind system that transports moisture across the region during the monsoon.

In summary, the monsoon has firmly established itself in Delhi, with atmospheric conditions suggesting that residents should remain prepared for rainfall activities until at least July 8.

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