Delhi recently recorded its coldest April day in eleven years, with significant temperature drops attributed to a western disturbance. This weather phenomenon resulted in widespread rainfall and hailstorms across North India on April 7 and 8, leading to a decrease in temperatures to seven degrees Celsius below the usual levels for this time of year.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) reported that on April 9, the Safdarjung Observatory in Delhi noted a maximum temperature of just 28.2 degrees Celsius, marking a notable departure from typical April averages. Such conditions are consistent with the impact of the moisture-laden system originating from the Mediterranean region.

Forecast for April 10 and Beyond

Looking ahead to April 10, clear skies are expected in the Delhi-NCR region, with daytime temperatures estimated to range between 32 to 34 degrees Celsius. Nighttime temperatures are predicted to fall between 16 and 18 degrees Celsius, providing a brief respite from the cold snap experienced earlier in the month.

Strong north-westerly winds, blowing at 20 to 30 kilometres per hour during the day, will contribute to a cooling effect despite the return of sunlight. Moreover, the IMD has indicated that no rainfall is forecast for this day, allowing residents to enjoy relatively pleasant weather.

However, the IMD warns of a gradual increase in temperatures, with maximums expected to rise by eight to ten degrees Celsius across the northwest plains between April 9 and 15. By April 12, Delhi’s temperatures may reach between 35 and 37 degrees Celsius, indicating a shift towards above-normal conditions shortly thereafter.

Rain Predictions for Other Regions in India

While North India prepares for drier conditions, the northeastern and eastern parts of the country are likely to experience continued rainfall. The IMD forecasts light to moderate showers, with isolated heavy bursts in regions such as Sikkim, Sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, and coastal Odisha on April 10. Particularly, heavy rainfall is anticipated in Arunachal Pradesh on both April 9 and 10.

Thunderstorm activity is also expected in Assam and Meghalaya during the week, while the central and southern regions of India are likely to remain predominantly dry. This differing weather pattern illustrates the varied climatic conditions across the country in the coming days.

The current shift from wet to dry weather patterns is influenced by several global climate mechanisms, including the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). This cycle affects precipitation patterns across the globe, creating alternating phases of rainfall and dryness that impact regions such as India.

Long-Term Weather Insights

The MJO is currently in Phase 6 and is anticipated to transition into Phase 8 by the second week of April. This shift indicates a higher likelihood of dry weather over India as the MJO’s associated rain-dominant phase is focusing primarily over the Pacific Ocean.

Furthermore, the long-term climatic drivers, including the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole, are presently in neutral states. These conditions mean that there are no significant influences pushing weather patterns towards extremes, allowing the MJO to primarily dictate forecasts.

Despite the predicted drier conditions, Northwest India experienced a remarkable 158 per cent above-normal pre-monsoon rainfall for the week ending on April 8. This statistic underscores the active nature of the recent weather systems, although their effects are dissipating as drier air prevails.

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