As the global community prepares for the upcoming UN climate summit, COP28, in Dubai from November 30 to December 12, 2023, the stakes are higher than ever. Against the backdrop of a year marred by unprecedented climate events, leaders from around the world are set to convene to reevaluate their commitments to reducing carbon emissions and address the urgent need for climate action.
With expectations of being the largest gathering yet, COP28 in Dubai is poised to draw over seventy thousand participants, including government officials, business leaders, youth advocates, Indigenous community representatives, and even lobbyists from fossil fuel companies. Notably, the host country, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), faces scrutiny for its perceived lack of assertiveness in phasing out fossil fuels, despite its ambition to position itself as a climate change leader.
Agenda Highlights
COP28 will mark the conclusion of the first-ever global stocktake, a comprehensive evaluation of progress towards the 2015 Paris Climate Change Agreement commitments. The summit aims to operationalize the Loss and Damage Fund established in the previous year, providing critical financial assistance to nations most vulnerable to climate change impacts.
The UAE has outlined four key pillars for COP28:
1. Energy Transition: A coalition led by the U.S. and the EU seeks to triple global renewable energy capacity by 2030. This includes efforts to scale up decarbonization technology in heavy-emitting sectors, expand low-carbon hydrogen, accelerate carbon capture and storage, and eliminate methane emissions.
2. Climate Finance: Overcoming the challenge of insufficient investments for climate action remains a top priority. Despite the agreement at COP27 to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050, the current pace of renewable energy investments falls far short of the required $4 to $6 trillion annually. COP28 aims to mobilize development banks, enhance incentives for private sector investments, improve accountability measures, and establish common standards for voluntary carbon markets.
3. Climate Adaptation and Resilience: Addressing climate resilience and sustainable development in lower-income countries will be a central theme. COP28 aims to finalize details of the Loss and Damage Fund, including financing mechanisms and eligibility criteria. Additionally, the summit seeks to operationalize the Global Goal on Adaptation, measuring countries’ progress in adapting to climate change.
4. Inclusivity: Building on the initiatives from COP27, this year’s conference emphasizes inclusivity by inviting youth delegates from island nations and lower-income countries. Recognizing the vulnerability of young people, Indigenous communities, and gender minorities to climate change, COP28 aims to amplify their voices in the discussions.
Findings of the Global Stocktake
Released in September 2023, the global stocktake’s technical findings indicate that governments are falling short of their emissions reduction goals outlined in the Paris Agreement. While current policies have mitigated the worst-case warming scenarios, achieving net-zero emissions by 2050 requires more ambitious actions, with global greenhouse gas emissions needing to decrease by at least 43 per cent by the end of the decade.
The findings coincide with alarming climate trends, including the largest jump in global average temperatures in September 2023, emphasizing the urgency for accelerated climate action.
Anticipated Negotiations and Outcomes
Historically, COP meetings conclude with countries adopting official protocols or agreements, though these are typically non-binding. Speculation surrounds a potential push for commitments to phase out fossil fuel emissions, with the European Union leading discussions. The stocktake’s clear message that no new fossil fuel infrastructure can be built may influence negotiations, but concrete promises to phase out fossil fuels are deemed unlikely at COP28.
As world leaders gather in Dubai, the hope is that COP28 will mark a turning point in the fight against climate change, with tangible commitments and actions that match the urgency of the global climate crisis. The world is watching as nations come together to navigate the path toward a sustainable and resilient future.
