Researchers from the Lancet Commission on 21st Century Global Threats to Health have warned that artificial intelligence (AI) could potentially result in human extinction by the year 2100. Their findings suggest that the malicious application of AI technologies poses a significant risk to humanity. This includes the possibility of AI being used to create biological weapons or inflict other forms of catastrophic damage.

The commission’s comprehensive study evaluated 17 major threats that could impact human health and survival in the period between 2025 and 2100. The researchers caution that rather than a singular crisis, the future will be shaped by the interplay of various risks related to technological advances, armed conflict, climate fluctuations, disease outbreaks, and socio-economic factors.

Although the researchers indicate that the likelihood of AI leading to human extinction is low, they acknowledge that if such a scenario were to materialise, the ramifications could be severe. Therefore, they emphasise the urgency of taking preventive measures against these potential threats.

Assessing Major Threats

As part of their assessment, the researchers identified two principal threats that could hypothetically lead to the extinction of humanity by 2100: the malicious use of AI and nuclear warfare. An editorial accompanying the report in The Lancet, titled “Rethinking Threats to Human Survival,” underscores that the consequences of either situation would be catastrophic for humanity at large.

While both threats are recognised as posing serious risks, the chances of either resulting in human extinction are classified as low by the researchers. Nonetheless, they assert that the potential severity of these scenarios warrants serious consideration and proactive measures. Estimating the likelihood of these threats presents challenges due to the scarcity of historical data.

The report also explores the potential outcomes if governments act to mitigate these risks. For example, it posits that limiting the harmful use of AI could save approximately 10.4 billion years of healthy life by 2100, measured using disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), which quantify healthy years lost due to illness, disability, or premature death.

Broader Context of Global Threats

AI and nuclear conflict are not the only risks spotlighted in the commission’s evaluation. A total of 17 threats were examined across 204 countries and territories, including environmental issues such as climate change, pandemics, air pollution, drug-resistant infections, conventional warfare, childhood malnutrition, obesity, mental health concerns, and income inequality.

The objective behind this expansive assessment is to understand how these interconnected issues could impact human health and well-being over the decades ahead. The commission is co-chaired by Professor Christopher JL Murray of the University of Washington and Dr Natalia Kanem, pointing out the inseparability of these threats and the necessity of addressing them collectively.

One of the notable findings emphasises not only the severity of these challenges but also humanity’s capacity for action. Professor Murray advocates for the establishment of health systems adept at responding to emerging threats, alongside a commitment to scientific innovation and enhanced monitoring of global risks.

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