A recent study indicates that a five-day heatwave in India may be responsible for nearly 30,000 excess deaths, which considerably exceeds the official figures released by the government during summer months. The analysis, published in the journal Frontiers in Environmental Health, suggests that even a single day of extreme heat can be associated with around 3,400 excess deaths across the nation.

This estimate starkly contrasts with the Union Health Ministry’s recorded count of approximately 360 heatstroke fatalities from March to July 2023. Independent monitoring efforts identified a higher total, with 733 deaths reported through news outlets. The findings highlight a significant gap in the official statistics regarding heat-related mortality.

The authors of the report, Piyush Narang and Ashok Gadgil from the India Energy and Climate Centre at the University of California, Berkeley, assert that until 2100, heatwaves are expected to negatively impact the quality of life for up to 600 million individuals in India under high warming scenarios. They emphasise that the mortality burden attributed to heatwaves remains largely unquantified, resulting in substantial under-reporting of heat-related deaths.

Discrepancy In Reporting Deaths From Heatwaves

Deaths linked to extreme heat rarely appear on death certificates. Victims are often classified as having succumbed to heart attacks, kidney failure, or old age rather than heat-related causes. By measuring deaths that exceed the usual baseline during periods of extreme heat—an approach referred to as excess mortality—the study indicates that the actual toll during heatwaves potentially runs into tens of thousands, remaining largely unrecognised.

Narang and Gadgil extended their findings on heat-related mortality from ten Indian cities to encompass all 765 districts, correlating districts with cities that share similar climate conditions. This represents the first comprehensive analysis of heat mortality in India at such a detailed geographical level.

The risk of heat-related fatalities is unevenly distributed across states. Uttar Pradesh is projected to account for over 8,000 deaths in a single five-day heatwave, the highest among all states. Following Uttar Pradesh are Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Gujarat, which together represent approximately 66 per cent of the expected national death toll from heatwaves.

Socioeconomic Factors Exacerbating Heatwave Impact

The study also reveals a pronounced economic disparity linked to the states facing the greatest risks. Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Gujarat collectively hold 43 per cent of India’s population yet contribute only 29 per cent of its economic output. This gap indicates that the states suffering the most from extreme heat are the least equipped to invest in essential measures such as cooling shelters, adequate water access, medical facilities, and effective warning systems.

India has developed its heat mitigation strategies largely through urban-focused initiatives. The heat action plan initiated in Ahmedabad, after a significant heatwave in 2010, has been recognised as a national model. The authors argue, however, that this urban-centric approach often neglects rural and low-income districts, which are particularly vulnerable to extreme heat. They suggest that federal funding for adaptation should prioritise high-burden regions rather than merely distributing resources based on population numbers.

While the estimates presented come with considerable qualifications, Narang and Gadgil clarify that these projections rely on modelling rather than verified counts. Conditions from 2008 to 2019 were used to calibrate the threshold, indicating that the projections should be viewed conservatively amid increasingly frequent and intense heatwaves. The insights provided in this study could serve as a guiding framework for future heatwave management strategies across India.

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