The year 2026 is projected to rank among the four warmest years ever recorded, with the global average temperature from January to September reaching 1.47 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, according to a report from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) cited by the Press Trust of India. This figure surpasses the full-year averages noted in 2025 and 2023, and is only marginally lower than the record set in 2024.

As El Niño intensifies, the global temperature is expected to rise further by the end of 2026. The phenomenon, which has been gaining strength since August, is anticipated to be the strongest on record by December. The WMO released its State of the Climate Report on the opening day of the COP31 UN climate meeting in Antalya, Türkiye.

WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo stated that the past four years have been the warmest in the 177-year observational record, with ocean heat breaking records for the tenth consecutive year. The ongoing El Niño is predicted to contribute significantly to high temperatures and extreme weather patterns extending into 2027.

Impact of Greenhouse Gases on Global Temperatures

The report outlines that global temperatures are escalating due to the Earth accumulating heat at an accelerating pace. Greenhouse gases are reportedly trapping unprecedented levels of heat, disrupting the balance between solar energy received and energy released by the Earth. This imbalance has reached its highest level since monitoring began.

According to the findings, the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has increased by 53 per cent, rising from approximately 278 parts per million in 1750 to around 426.8 parts per million in 2025. Additionally, the global average concentration of methane has surged by 167 per cent, from 729 parts per billion in 1750 to 1,948 parts per billion in 2025.

The oceans are absorbing 90 per cent of the excess heat, and 2026 is set to become the tenth consecutive year of record ocean warmth. This ongoing trend poses significant risks to marine ecosystems and global weather patterns.

Consequences of Extreme Weather Events

The WMO has highlighted that extreme weather events are adversely affecting lives and livelihoods, exacerbating food security issues, deepening poverty, and contributing to displacement in various regions. Preliminary estimates indicate that heatwaves, droughts, and wildfires in Europe have led to over 30,000 excess deaths.

In India, approximately 146.5 million people were reportedly exposed to extreme heat during a heatwave in April 2026. This alarming statistic underscores the severe impact of climate change on vulnerable populations.

UN Secretary-General António Guterres remarked on the urgency of the situation, stating that the world has entered a new era of climate extremes. He emphasised the need for leaders to take serious action by reducing emissions more rapidly, transitioning from fossil fuels, and providing necessary support to vulnerable countries.

The WMO report further asserts that rising greenhouse gas levels, record ocean warmth, and a strengthening El Niño are collectively driving global temperatures higher. The ongoing extreme weather continues to disrupt lives, livelihoods, and food security across multiple regions, highlighting the pressing need for comprehensive climate action.

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