The ongoing monsoon season in India has started with significant rainfall shortages. As of June 20, 2026, the nation has recorded just 45.6 millimetres of precipitation, compared to the normal 84.4 millimetres expected at this time of year. This translates to a 46 per cent deficiency in rainfall, as stated by the India Meteorological Department (IMD). Such an early shortfall in the monsoon season is concerning and indicates potential challenges for agriculture and water resources in upcoming months.

Factors Contributing to Missing Rainfall

Several factors are allegedly influencing the current state of the monsoon. One of the main contributors is the presence of El Niño conditions in the Pacific Ocean, which are predicted to strengthen as the season progresses. El Niño refers to the unusual warming of surface waters in the central and eastern Pacific, which can disrupt global weather patterns, commonly leading to reduced rainfall in India.

In addition to El Niño, the status of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) plays a crucial role in monsoon behaviour. At present, the IOD remains neutral, providing no additional support to the rainfall scenario. Typically, a positive IOD phase could mitigate the impacts of El Niño, but such a condition has not yet materialised this year. Furthermore, the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), which affects cloud and rain distribution across the equator, is currently positioned unfavourably and is not contributing to increased precipitation activity.

As a result, India is experiencing a reduction in the moisture-laden winds that are essential for monsoon rains. These weaker cross-equatorial winds are particularly affecting central India, which has seen some of the lowest rainfall levels this season.

Future Rainfall Expectations

Despite the current challenges, there is some optimism regarding the potential revival of monsoon activity. The IMD forecasts that conditions could become more favourable in the last week of June. The Somali Jet, a low-level wind system that brings moisture from the Arabian Sea, is projected to strengthen during this period, which may enhance rain over several states including Maharashtra, Odisha, Jharkhand, and Bihar.

However, until this expected change occurs, many regions across India will continue to experience above-average temperatures and possibly heatwave conditions. States like Bihar and East Uttar Pradesh are currently grappling with high temperatures, which further complicates the situation amidst the delayed monsoon.

Historically, the Indian monsoon is known to have irregular timelines, and while it may appear delayed, past seasons have shown that it can recover and deliver rainfall later in the year. The upcoming weeks will be pivotal in determining whether this year’s monsoon will bounce back or if the dry conditions will persist throughout the season.

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