The meeting between Chinese President Xi Jinping and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is anticipated to enhance the ongoing process of improving relations between India and China. The summit is scheduled for Saturday in New Delhi, coinciding with the BRICS Summit. This engagement will be Xi’s first interaction with Modi on Indian soil since the 2020 Galwan Valley clash, a pivotal event that led to a significant deterioration in bilateral ties.

Former Indian Ambassador to China Ashok Kantha addressed an India Today BRICS Roundtable on Thursday, suggesting that this meeting could provide necessary signals to hasten the rebuilding of ties. Kantha noted that India-China relations have exhibited gradual recovery, particularly since Modi and Xi’s previous meeting in Kazan in October 2024.

However, he asserted that both nations remain far from a comprehensive reset. Kantha pointed out the importance of focusing on both people-centric contacts and enhancing economic engagement. He emphasised that while China is India’s largest trading partner, the persistent trade imbalance remains a significant issue that necessitates discussion.

Trade Imbalance and Investment Challenges

According to figures shared by Kantha, China’s trade surplus with India reached $116 billion last year, reflecting the growing disparities in the economic relationship. He highlighted that the existing investment flows and China’s restrictive policies on outward direct investment pose challenges that require immediate attention in discussions during the meeting.

The former ambassador pointed out that addressing issues related to technology transfers will also be crucial in revamping India-China economic ties. With India’s focus on sustainable and equitable growth, any meaningful dialogue regarding trade must encompass both nations’ economic strategies and investment priorities.

As the leaders convene, it remains paramount to assess how these economic discussions will translate into mutual benefits, especially with India’s aspirations for a balanced trade relationship. The dividends of such conversations could potentially shape the future trajectory of economic interactions between both nations.

Border Situation Remains a Critical Concern

On the security front, Kantha underscored that there is an expectation for tangible results concerning the Line of Actual Control (LAC), which spans 3,488 kilometres. He specified that India seeks an “early and substantial harvest” regarding the resolution of border disputes. Kantha noted that while the situation along the border has stabilised, it is far from normal, emphasising that substantial progress is necessary.

The former envoy mentioned that any agreements should extend beyond limited sections, such as the Sikkim sector. He elaborated that New Delhi anticipates advancements that cover multiple areas including Sikkim, the Middle Sector, and the crucial highest watershed principle that influences the entirety of the border region.

Kantha reiterated the Indian perspective that the “state of borders” directly correlates with the “state of relations.” He asserted that for bilateral ties to return to normal, a lasting peace and tranquillity along the frontiers must be established. Without addressing these foundational issues, both countries face significant challenges in nurturing a stable relationship.

As the summit approaches, the international community will be closely monitoring the outcomes of this high-level dialogue, particularly in light of historical tensions. The effectiveness of their discussions could play a pivotal role in shaping the direction of India-China relations in the coming years.

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