The recent weather patterns in India reveal a troubling coexistence of drought and flooding. Farmers are witnessing weeks of dry weather, with parched land under a scorching sun. Reports indicate that sudden downpours can occur, transforming the ground into an unyielding surface that prevents the absorption of rainfall. This phenomenon is attributed to complex atmospheric conditions, influenced by El Niño, a climate pattern that has been declared for this season.

Union Agriculture Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan has identified 197 districts throughout India as particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects of El Niño this monsoon season. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecasted rainfall levels at approximately 90 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA), which represents the typical rainfall recorded over five decades. While this statistic may initially appear reassuring, it obscures the associated risks.

El Niño leads to alterations in global atmospheric circulation, typically resulting in a weakened monsoon in India. Consequently, extended heatwaves ensue, reducing the likelihood of rainfall and affecting the soil’s ability to retain water. This vulnerability compromises the agricultural sector, as farmers face uncertainty regarding crop yields.

Soil Degradation and Hydrophobicity

El Niño influences not only rainfall but also the quality of the soil. Under high temperatures, the composition of topsoil deteriorates, transitioning from a porous structure to a hardened layer. This alteration occurs as surface moisture evaporates and the soil particles contract. The network of channels that normally allow water absorption collapses, leading to a significant decline in soil vitality.

Hydrologists refer to this condition as hydrophobicity, where the dry, cracked ground repels water instead of absorbing it. Consequently, when intense rainfall does occur, the already compromised ground is unable to manage it, resulting in rapid runoff rather than replenishment of groundwater supplies. This process places additional strain on agricultural practices in affected areas.

The onset of cloudbursts, characterized by highly localised and intense rainfall, exacerbates the situation. Defined as the occurrence of 100 millimetres or more of rain within a one-hour timeframe over a narrow area, cloudbursts lead to immediate pooling and rapid water flow. The accumulated water feeds into already congested drainage systems, often resulting in flash floods within minutes.

Structural Vulnerabilities Under Heat Stress

This situation highlights structural vulnerabilities in drought-affected landscapes. The 197 districts identified by government officials are already susceptible to the consequences of extreme weather conditions. A seemingly adequate rainfall forecast, such as the 90 per cent of LPA, can prove inadequate when confronted with intense bursts of rainfall that overwhelm the hardened ground.

The synergy of drought and flash floods poses a complex challenge for local communities. As the land becomes increasingly dehydrated, every drop of rain threatens to become a catalyst for disaster rather than relief. This alarming trend demands attention from both governmental and agricultural bodies to formulate effective strategies for mitigating the impact of extreme weather events on vulnerable regions.

Response measures and preparedness are crucial as India prepares for a volatile monsoon season. Employing enhanced forecasting methods, improving soil management practices, and implementing infrastructure adaptations are necessary steps to safeguard affected districts against the impending challenges posed by climate variability.

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