The 2026 FIFA World Cup is poised to begin on June 12, 2026, with matches hosted across the United States, Mexico, and Canada. However, this edition may become one of the hottest in the history of the event. A recent study by the climate research organisation World Weather Attribution indicates that approximately 25 per cent of the tournament’s 104 matches could be played under conditions deemed unsafe by FIFPRO, the global players’ union.

This level of risk is nearly double that assessed during the last World Cup held in the United States in 1994. The analysis raises concerns regarding player safety, as around five matches might encounter conditions severe enough to warrant postponements. Such warnings come amid growing apprehension about the tournament’s susceptibility to adverse climate conditions.

A separate report from 2025, titled “Pitches in Peril,” discovered that 14 out of the 16 host stadiums have already exceeded recognised safety thresholds for extreme heat, intense rainfall, and flooding events. Cities notably affected include Dallas, Houston, Miami, Kansas City, and Atlanta, all of which experienced unsafe heat levels for over two months last summer.

Assessing Heat Risks With Scientific Methods

To evaluate potential risks, scientists employed the Wet Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT) index, which measures the body’s ability to regulate heat in relation to humidity, heat, and sunlight. According to FIFPRO guidelines, mandatory cooling breaks are recommended when WBGT surpasses 26°C, while match postponement is suggested if levels exceed 28°C, equating to around 38°C in dry heat or 30°C in high humidity.

Over a third of the matches forecasted to carry a minimum 10 per cent risk of breaching the 26-degree threshold are scheduled at venues lacking air conditioning. These venues include Miami, Kansas City, New York, and Philadelphia. Alarmingly, even the World Cup final at MetLife Stadium in New Jersey faces a one-in-eight chance of exceeding this critical temperature, a significant increase compared to the 1994 tournament.

Vincent Gouttebarge, medical director of FIFPRO, emphasised that these assessments necessitate a series of mitigation strategies aimed at protecting players’ health and performance in hot conditions. In response, FIFA has confirmed the implementation of measures including three-minute hydration breaks during each half, cooling systems for players and spectators, and enhanced medical readiness adapted to real-time conditions.

Implications for Players and Fans Alike

Experts have expressed concern that the primary issue may extend beyond mere medical emergencies, focusing instead on the potential impact on the quality of football played. Chris Mullington, a consultant anaesthetist and senior lecturer at Imperial College London, remarked that the implications are likely to affect performance more than health. He noted that elite athletes are accustomed to heat and may adjust their pace, leading to a more conservative style of play.

Moreover, while air-conditioned stadiums may offer relief for players, fans attending matches and participating in outdoor festivities could remain vulnerable to excessive heat. A recent survey showed that 91 per cent of 3,600 fans wish for the tournament to set new standards for sustainability.

Professor Friederike Otto, a climate science expert at Imperial College London, highlighted the urgent need for reconsidering the timing of such tournaments. She suggested that scheduling World Cups either earlier or later in the year would allow for a safer and more enjoyable experience for participants and attendees alike.

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