Bengaluru has witnessed overcast skies and afternoon showers in recent weeks; however, a short drive west reveals starkly different conditions. Areas along the coastal region and the green hills of Malnad continue to remain dry, awaiting the arrival of consistent rain. The southwest monsoon, which typically marks India’s primary rainy season, reached Karnataka in early June, pushing in from the Arabian Sea. Despite the monsoon’s arrival, rainfall has been unevenly distributed.

Data from the Karnataka State Natural Disaster Monitoring Centre indicates that from June 1 to June 18, the state received only 71 millimetres of rain, significantly lower than the expected 109 millimetres. This leads to a recorded shortfall of 35 per cent. The situation is particularly concerning for coastal Karnataka, where rainfall is reportedly 54 per cent below normal, while the Malnad region is experiencing half of the expected precipitation.

In stark contrast, Bengaluru’s rainfall has been closer to its usual June averages. This begs the question: why is Bengaluru receiving precipitation while adjacent regions suffer from a lack of it?

Geographical Factors Influencing Rainfall Distribution

The geographical layout of Karnataka plays a significant role in its monsoon rain distribution. The moist winds from the Arabian Sea encounter the Western Ghats, which act as a natural barrier. As the humid air rises over these hills, it cools, moisture condenses, and rain is released—this phenomenon is known as orographic rainfall. Typically, this process provides substantial rainfall along the coast.

However, the current meteorological situation reveals that a steady influx of winds from the Arabian Sea, referred to as the low-level jet, has been weak this year. The seasonal trough that usually brings rain to the western coast has been largely inactive. This lack of consistent sea air hampers the mountains’ ability to generate the usual torrential rains, leaving both the coast and the Malnad region suffering from dry conditions.

Bengaluru, located inland, lies in the rain shadow of these hills and does not rely heavily on monsoon rains from the sea. Instead, its rainfall is primarily generated by local convection. The rising heat during the day creates warmer air, which eventually leads to towering clouds that can result in thunderstorms during the late afternoon.

Concerns Over Future Rainfall Patterns

Although rain is expected to increase along the coast in the forthcoming days, the overall outlook for the monsoon remains uncertain. For Karnataka, which relies on this period to replenish its reservoirs and support agricultural activities, every week that passes without adequate rainfall is a cause for concern. The reliance on a consistent monsoon is vital for the region’s water supply and agricultural health.

As the situation develops, it will be crucial for farmers and policymakers to monitor rainfall patterns closely, especially given the potential influence of changing climate conditions on the monsoon season. The coming days will reveal whether the rains will arrive in time to alleviate the current drought-prone conditions in many parts of the state.

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