He pointed out that the overall population figures in India appear stable due to high-birth-rate states such as Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, which offset the lower birth rates in states like Kerala and Bengal. The necessity for migration arises from the significantly lower birth rates in the latter states, where sustaining local economies with the existing workforce could become a challenge.

Migration Necessity and Cultural Considerations

Sanyal emphasised the dilemma faced by these states regarding workforce availability. He remarked that regions cannot expect to maintain operational systems while simultaneously exporting a large proportion of their populations for employment abroad. He articulated that there is a pressing need to find a balance between local needs and external migration, particularly focusing on the cultural implications of such demographic shifts.

He stated, “You cannot have very low birth rates and send off a large proportion of your population to work in the Gulf and then say that the systems have to be kept running at the same time. Who’s going to keep those systems running?” This highlights the challenge of sustaining public services and economic health amidst fluctuating population figures.

While Sanyal acknowledged that India has not yet begun to face a significant decline in its population, he forecasted potential challenges ahead as more of the population transitions into the working-age bracket. He noted that India is currently in a phase described as a demographic dividend, where job creation becomes crucial.

Global Context of Fertility Rates and Immigration

Sanyal also provided a broader perspective, asserting that no country’s birth rate has significantly reversed once it has fallen below the replacement level, despite numerous government initiatives aimed at boosting childbirth. He cited examples from around the world wherein different countries have adopted varied strategies to deal with similar demographic issues.

For instance, he mentioned that some nations promote immigration to maintain functioning institutions, while others, such as Japan, have chosen a path of limited migration to preserve cultural continuity. He highlighted South Korea as a particularly concerning case, where the total fertility rate has plummeted to about a third of the rate necessary to support a stable population.

In the context of these global observations, Sanyal expressed worries about potential future declines in major populations like China, suggesting that this will present particular challenges in the years to come. Those countries are likely to face significant complications due to their ageing populations and reduced workforce, indicating a trend that India should be prepared for in the future.

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कम होते बच्चों की वजहें

सीएम नायडू ने कहा कि आजकल कई दंपति केवल एक ही बच्चा रखने का विकल्प चुन रहे हैं क्योंकि उनकी आमदनी बढ़ रही है। इसके अलावा, कुछ परिवार पहले बच्चे के लड़का होने का इंतजार करते हैं। उन्होंने इस प्रवृत्ति को राज्य की जनसंख्या वृद्धि दर में गिरावट की एक बड़ी वजह बताया। उनके अनुसार, प्रत्येक समाज का प्रजनन स्तर 2.1 होना चाहिए, जो कि स्थिर जनसंख्या के लिए आवश्यक है।

TFR का मतलब और महत्व

मुख्यमंत्री ने जोर देकर कहा कि जनसंख्या वृद्धि के लिए कुल प्रजनन दर यानी TFR का 2.1 होना आवश्यक है। यदि यह दर इससे कम हो जाती है, तो भविष्य में कामकाजी युवा आबादी घटने लगेगी और बुजुर्गों की संख्या बढ़ेगी। इससे न केवल सामाजिक समस्याएँ बढ़ सकती हैं, बल्कि यह आर्थिक विकास में भी बाधा डाल सकती है।

आर्थिक विकास पर असर

सोशल चैलेंज के बारे में बात करते हुए, सीएम ने बताया कि कई देशों में घटती जनसंख्या की एक गंभीर समस्या बन गई है। अगर भारत ने समय रहते आवश्यक कदम नहीं उठाए, तो कुछ राज्यों में भी ऐसी ही स्थिति उत्पन्न हो सकती है। उन्होंने दंपतियों से अपील करते हुए कहा कि उन्हें मिलकर इस समस्या का सामना करना चाहिए और जनसंख्या वृद्धि के प्रयासों में सरकार का साथ देना चाहिए।

आगामी योजनाएँ और विवरण

मुख्यमंत्री नायडू ने यह भी बताया कि स्वास्थ्य मंत्री सत्य कुमार यादव ने कहा है कि सरकार ने तीसरे और उससे अधिक बच्चों वाले परिवारों को भी इस योजना का लाभ देने का विचार किया है। योजना को विस्तारित करने के लिए जल्द ही आवश्यक जानकारी जारी की जाएगी, जिससे अधिक परिवार इस पहल का फायदा उठा सकें।

समाज में बदलाव की आवश्यकता

सरकार ने यह कदम उठाकर यह भी संदेश दिया है कि बच्चों को सिर्फ एक आर्थिक बोझ समझना ठीक नहीं है। जनसंख्या को बढ़ाने के लिए दंपतियों को प्रोत्साहित करने के लिए ऐसी योजनाओं की आवश्यकता है। सीएम नायडू ने कहा कि समाज में बदलाव लाने की इस प्रक्रिया में सभी को मिलकर कार्य करना चाहिए।

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The draft also suggests raising the minimum age of marriage for girls and making education free till the university level for all girl students in the state. It is currently open to inputs from the public. If it does become an Act, Assam will be the only state after Rajasthan to have a population policy of its own. The rest of the states follow the National Population Policy of 2000.

“This norm is mainly coercive in nature and coercion has never worked in India prior to this. It violates people’s rights, especially women. Even today, girls are married before 18 years of age and have no say in the number of children they want to have. This norm deprives such women of Government jobs as well. In India, we need an agency for women empowerment more than such forceful measures. In order to reduce population it is important to educate girls and increasing the minimum age for marriage,” said Poonam Muttreja, Executive Director, Population Foundation Of India while strongly expressing that the strict two-child norm is not feasible.

There were two-child norms in Panchayats in the 6 states of India, where there are evidences of the men divorcing their wives and disowning their children. Also, the Government Population Policy, 2002 is against incentives and disincentives. India has signed the draft plan of action, Cairo (the international population development conference) which totally has asked for a call to end both incentives and disincentives. This norm is violating the National Population Policy.

According to the 2011 census, eleven Muslim-dominated districts of Assam-Dhubri, Morigaon, Goalpara, Darrang, Nagaon, Karimganj, Hailakandi, Barpeta, Bongaigaon, Cachar and Dhemaji-have recorded abnormally high population growth rates. Dhubri’s growth rate was 24.44 per cent (all India average was 17.7 per cent), Morigaon’s was 23.34 per cent, Goalpara recorded 22.64 per cent and Darrang 22.19 per cent.

“Besides, a proposal for providing incentives is also included for poor persons, who take care of their elderly parents. The policy will also care for the adolescents. We will work for public awareness and reach out through religious leaders, NGOs, parliamentarians and media in this regard,” Sarma said.

The minister also said he will consider including a provision for giving 50% reservation to women in government jobs and elections.

“Till July, we will seek public suggestions. Then it will go to the Assembly for debate and adopting a resolution. We have to go step by step and we are in no hurry. This is the long-term thing that BJP had promised in the Vision Document,” Sarma said.

Service rules of 48 departments will have to be amended for adopting the proposed policy, he said, adding it will take at least three years and he will be happy if the policy takes the final shape by next Assembly polls in 2021.

“We want to move from primarily a medical-led policy to a socially responsible policy. We want to have a behavioural change and there will be policy incentives. Assam’s current population is 3.12 crore as per 2011 Census and it increased by one crore from 2001,” Sarma said.

(With inputs from Indian Express)

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