The party consisted of seven trekkers, a guide, a cook, and three porters, all of whom had received the necessary permissions from the Forest Department before commencing their journey from Gangotri. Adverse weather conditions, including glacier movement and snowfall, reportedly obstructed their route, hindering their timely return.

On October 30, the trekkers managed to establish contact with their trekking agency, indicating they were safe in the vicinity of Kachhi Dhang. They requested assistance, signalling that they were in need of help due to the unfolding situation.

Current Status of Rescue Operations

As of November 1, the search and rescue operations have been intensified. Initial efforts included an aerial survey of the Kedartal area, conducted by the relevant authorities, but no trace of the missing trekkers or their equipment was discovered. The search teams faced challenges due to ongoing adverse weather conditions.

Two personnel from the State Disaster Response Force (SDRF), Head Constable Ravi Chauhan and Constable Deepak Pant, were deployed by helicopter to Harsil on November 1. They undertook two aerial reconnaissance flights over the Kedartal region, but officials reported that no definitive signs of the missing trekkers or their tents were observed during these missions.

Rescue operations were temporarily halted due to the persistent poor weather, which has complicated the search efforts. However, specialised teams from both the SDRF and the National Disaster Response Force (NDRF) resumed ground searches today. Helicopter operations have also been initiated to aid in locating the missing individuals.

Profiles of the Missing Trekkers

The group of missing trekkers includes individuals from West Bengal, with ages ranging from 23 to 40. Notably, 30-year-old Tapas Bauri, 23-year-old Ratna Ghosh, 39-year-old Manoj Khovas, 40-year-old Ritu Mandal, and 30-year-old Uday Ghosh are among those unaccounted for. Additionally, Vartika Verma, aged 28, from Uttar Pradesh, and Siddharth Rana, a 25-year-old guide from Uttarkashi, are also missing.

Reports indicate that one of the stranded trekkers has sustained a head injury, adding urgency to the ongoing rescue efforts. The authorities are prioritising the safety and recovery of all individuals involved in this incident.

As the search continues, the families of the missing trekkers await updates with concern. The local administration, along with rescue teams, remains committed to locating the individuals and ensuring their safe return.

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ग्लेशियरों के पिघलने की रफ्तार बढ़ने से भारत समेत पूरे हिमालयी क्षेत्र में भूकंप का खतरा काफी बढ़ गया है, जिसके प्रति IIT कानपुर के अर्थ साइंसेज (पृथ्वी विज्ञान) विभाग के प्रख्यात सीस्मोलॉजिस्ट प्रफेसर जावेद एन. मलिक ने एक गंभीर चेतावनी जारी की है। जलवायु परिवर्तन के कारण तेजी से पिघल रही बर्फ और टूटते ग्लेशियर केवल बाढ़ या जल संकट ही नहीं ला रहे हैं, बल्कि पृथ्वी की आंतरिक परतों के संतुलन को भी बिगाड़ रहे हैं। प्रफेसर मलिक के इस खोजी और वैज्ञानिक विश्लेषण ने भू-वैज्ञानिकों के बीच एक नई बहस और चिंता को जन्म दे दिया है।

पहाड़ों की अनलोडिंग और कांपती धरती का वैज्ञानिक सच, क्या है प्रफेसर जावेद एन. मलिक की चेतावनी?

हाल ही में नेपाल और उत्तराखंड के हिमालयी क्षेत्रों में देखी गई ग्लेशियर टूटने और पिघलने की घटनाओं के बाद प्रफेसर जावेद एन. मलिक और उनकी टीम ने हिमालयी क्षेत्र के टेक्टोनिक प्लेट्स पर इसके प्रभावों का गहरा अध्ययन किया। प्रफेसर मलिक के अनुसार, हिमालय की भूगर्भीय क्षमता अधिकतम 8.5 मैग्नीट्यूड तक का विनाशकारी भूकंप पैदा करने की है। उन्होंने आगाह किया है कि जिस गति से ग्लेशियरों का द्रव्यमान कम हो रहा है, वह पहाड़ों के लिए ‘अनलोडिंग’ (भार कम होने) की प्रक्रिया को तेज कर रहा है। यदि ग्लेशियर इसी रफ्तार से पिघलते रहे, तो हिमालयी क्षेत्र में बड़ा भूकंप आना तय है। वैज्ञानिकों का मानना है कि वर्ष 2015 में नेपाल में आए भूकंप से भूगर्भ की पूरी ऊर्जा बाहर नहीं निकली थी, जिसके कारण अगले 50 से 100 वर्षों में वहां और अधिक तीव्र भूकंप आने की प्रबल आशंका बनी हुई है।

ग्लेशियर पिघलने और भूकंप का संबंध: वैज्ञानिक विश्लेषण

आम तौर पर लोग ग्लेशियरों के पिघलने का संबंध केवल बढ़ते तापमान, समुद्र के जलस्तर में वृद्धि या ग्लेशियर झील फटने (GLOF) जैसी घटनाओं से जोड़ते हैं। लेकिन प्रफेसर मलिक ने इसके पीछे छिपे गहरे भू-वैज्ञानिक (Geological) कारणों को उजागर किया है, जिसे विज्ञान की भाषा में ‘आइसोस्टेटिक रीबाउंड’ (Isostatic Rebound) या ‘आइसोस्टेटिक बैलेंस’ (Isostatic Balance) कहा जाता है। इस प्रक्रिया को मुख्य रूप से तीन चरणों में समझा जा सकता है:

‘आइसोस्टेटिक रीबाउंड’ का सिद्धांत

हिमालय की विशाल चोटियों पर जमा अरबों टन बर्फ नीचे की चट्टानों और टेक्टोनिक प्लेटों पर एक भारी दबाव (Vertical Pressure) बनाए रखती है। जब यह बर्फ तेजी से पिघलती है, तो चट्टानों के ऊपर से यह भारी दबाव अचानक हट जाता है। दबाव कम होने से नीचे दबी भूगर्भीय प्लेटें (विशेष रूप से भारतीय और यूरेशियन प्लेटें) ऊपर की तरफ उठने का प्रयास करती हैं। प्लेटों के इस अचानक ऊर्ध्वाधर उभार (Vertical Upliftment) से चट्टानों में संचित ऊर्जा मुक्त होती है, जो बड़े भूकंप का कारण बनती है।

दरारों में पानी का प्रवेश (Lubrication of Faults)

भूगर्भ में यूरेशियन और तिब्बती प्लेटों के निरंतर टकराव के चलते हिमालय की आंतरिक चट्टानों में पहले से ही अनगिनत दरारें और फॉल्ट लाइन्स (Fault Lines) मौजूद हैं। जब ग्लेशियर पिघलते हैं, तो भारी मात्रा में पानी इन गहरी दरारों के अंदर रिसने लगता है। यह पानी चट्टानों के बीच एक ‘लुब्रिकेंट’ (स्नेहक) का काम करता है, जिससे चट्टानों की आपसी पकड़ या ताकत कम हो जाती है। इसके परिणामस्वरूप फॉल्ट लाइन्स आपस में तेजी से सरकती हैं और भूकंप के झटके महसूस होते हैं।

टेक्टोनिक प्लेट्स का गणित और ‘सिस्मिक गैप’ का खतरा

भारत की टेक्टोनिक प्लेट (Indian Plate) लगातार यूरेशियन प्लेट को उत्तर की तरफ धकेल रही है, जिससे हिमालय क्षेत्र में भारी तनाव (Stress) जमा हो रहा है। प्रफेसर मलिक ने अपनी रिसर्च में स्पष्ट किया है कि उत्तराखंड और नेपाल के कई हिस्सों में लंबे समय से कोई बहुत बड़ा भूकंप नहीं आया है, जिसे भू-विज्ञान में ‘सिस्मिक गैप’ (Seismic Gap) कहा जाता है। इतिहास गवाह है कि उत्तराखंड में साल 1505 में करीब 8.3 तीव्रता और साल 1803 में 7.5 तीव्रता का बड़ा भूकंप आया था। इस ऐतिहासिक चक्र के आधार पर उत्तराखंड और आसपास के क्षेत्रों में हर 300 से 500 वर्षों में एक महा-भूकंप की आशंका बनी रहती है। ग्लेशियरों का तेजी से अनलोड होना इस चक्र को और अधिक छोटा व खतरनाक बना रहा है।

दोहरी मार: ग्लेशियर का पिघलना और भूजल का अत्यधिक दोहन

आईआईटी कानपुर के इस खोजी अध्ययन में केवल पहाड़ों की ही नहीं, बल्कि गंगा के मैदानी इलाकों की भी आंखें खोलने वाली हकीकत सामने आई है। प्रफेसर मलिक के अनुसार, एक तरफ जहां पहाड़ों से बर्फ कम हो रही है, वहीं दूसरी तरफ उत्तर प्रदेश और बिहार जैसे गंगा के मैदानी इलाकों में भूगर्भ जल (Groundwater) का अत्यधिक दोहन किया जा रहा है। जमीन के नीचे से अरबों लीटर पानी निकालने के कारण मैदानी इलाकों की जमीन खोखली हो रही है और धंसने की घटनाएं बढ़ रही हैं। यह दोहरी अनलोडिंग (पहाड़ों से बर्फ का हटना और मैदानों से पानी का खत्म होना) पृथ्वी के क्रस्ट (पपड़ी) के संतुलन को पूरी तरह बिगाड़ रही है, जिससे दिल्ली-एनसीआर, उत्तर प्रदेश और उत्तराखंड के पूरे बेल्ट पर भूकंप का खतरा दोगुना हो गया है।

कौन से क्षेत्र हैं सबसे अधिक संवेदनशील?

आईआईटी कानपुर की 17 वर्षों की व्यापक जांच और सीस्मिक मैपिंग के अनुसार, भारत को विभिन्न भूकंपीय जोनों में बांटा गया है। प्रफेसर मलिक ने चेतावनी दी है कि भूकंप आने की स्थिति में पहाड़ी राज्यों से कहीं ज्यादा नुकसान गंगा के किनारे बसे मैदानी शहरों को हो सकता है। क्षेत्र / जोन, संवेदनशीलता का कारण और संभावित प्रभावित प्रमुख शहर-

जोन-5 (अत्यधिक खतरनाक)- टेक्टोनिक प्लेट्स की बाउंड्री और फॉल्ट लाइन्स के बिल्कुल करीब स्थित होना। उत्तराखंड, कच्छ (गुजरात), अंडमान और निकोबार द्वीप समूह, जम्मू-कश्मीर।

जोन-4 (गंभीर खतरा)- हिमालय की तराई (Terai) बेल्ट और रेतीली जलोढ़ मिट्टी वाले मैदानी क्षेत्र। दिल्ली-एनसीआर, लखीमपुर खीरी, बहराइच, पीलीभीत, गाजियाबाद, रूड़की, नैनीताल।

जोन-3 (मध्यम से उच्च खतरा)- गंगा नदी के किनारे बसे शहर जहाँ रेतीली मिट्टी के कारण ‘लिक्विफैक्शन’ (Soil Liquefaction) का खतरा अधिक है। कानपुर, लखनऊ, प्रयागराज, वाराणसी।

नोट: प्रफेसर मलिक के अनुसार, गंगा के मैदानी इलाकों की मिट्टी रेतीली और पानी से संतृप्त है। भूकंप के तीव्र झटके आने पर यहाँ की जमीन पानी की तरह व्यवहार करने लगती है (लिक्विफैक्शन), जिससे बहुमंजिला इमारतों के जमींदोज होने का खतरा सबसे ज्यादा होता है।

आगे की राह: क्या हैं बचाव के उपाय?

IIT कानपुर के वैज्ञानिकों का स्पष्ट कहना है कि हम भूकंप को रोक नहीं सकते, लेकिन अपनी तैयारियों से जान-माल के नुकसान को न्यूनतम जरूर कर सकते हैं। इसके लिए निम्नलिखित सुधारात्मक कदम उठाने की तत्काल आवश्यकता है:

ग्लेशियरों की रियल-टाइम सैटेलाइट निगरानी: हिमालयी ग्लेशियरों के पिघलने की दर और नई बन रही खतरनाक ग्लेशियर झीलों की निरंतर मैपिंग होनी चाहिए।

अर्ली वार्निंग सिस्टम (EWS): पहाड़ों से लेकर मैदानों तक भूकंप और फ्लैश फ्लड की पूर्व चेतावनी देने वाले आधुनिक यंत्रों का जाल बिछाया जाए।

स्ट्रक्चरल ऑडिट और भूकंपरोधी निर्माण: विशेष रूप से जोन-4 और जोन-5 में आने वाले शहरों की पुरानी इमारतों का स्ट्रक्चरल ऑडिट हो और नए निर्माणों में ‘भूकंपरोधी कोड’ का कड़ाई से पालन कराया जाए।

भूजल का नियंत्रित दोहन: मैदानी इलाकों में पानी के अंधाधुंध दोहन पर रोक लगे और वाटर रीचार्जिंग (Rainwater Harvesting) को अनिवार्य किया जाए।

भविष्य का खतरा

ग्लेशियरों का पिघलना केवल पर्यावरणविदों के लिए चिंता का विषय नहीं है, बल्कि यह सीधे तौर पर हमारी धरती की स्थिरता से जुड़ा हुआ मामला है। आईआईटी कानपुर के प्रोफेसर जावेद एन. मलिक की यह खोजी चेतावनी प्रकृति का एक कड़ा संदेश है कि यदि हमने समय रहते वैश्विक वार्मिंग और प्राकृतिक संसाधनों के दोहन पर लगाम नहीं लगाई, तो पहाड़ों की यह अनलोडिंग मैदानी इलाकों के विनाश का कारण बन सकती है।

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The post पिघलती बर्फ, सुलगता भूगर्भ: क्यों खतरे में हैं उत्तर भारत के मैदानी शहर? appeared first on The CSR Journal.

A GLOF refers to the sudden and often destructive release of water stored in a glacial lake. These lakes form as glaciers melt, leading to water accumulation behind natural barriers composed of ice, rock, and debris, known as moraines. Unlike typical river floods, GLOFs can unleash vast amounts of water in a short time, creating powerful torrents that can devastate infrastructure, including bridges, roads, and homes.

The recent incident involved approximately 7.4 million cubic metres of water being released from Shintaphu Lake in Bhutan. This water flowed through the Mo (Mofu) river system towards the Sankosh river, raising alarms about potential flooding in parts of West Bengal and Assam. In response, local authorities evacuated thousands and converted schools into relief shelters, while disaster response teams remained on standby.

Mechanisms Behind Glacial Lake Outbursts

Glacial lakes do not solely burst due to rising temperatures; various factors can compromise the natural dam that holds the water. Avalanches and landslides can displace water, generating waves that may cause overflow. Additionally, as glaciers retreat, new lakes form, and existing ones expand, increasing the volume of water behind unstable barriers.

Heavy rainfall can also elevate lake water levels rapidly, adding pressure on natural dams. Furthermore, seismic activity can destabilise moraine dams, leading to landslides into glacial lakes. Once these natural barriers fail, water can rush downstream at high speeds, carrying debris and sediment.

The Indian Himalayan region, which houses numerous glaciers and glacial lakes, faces significant risks due to its geography and climate. As temperatures rise, the retreat of glaciers creates new lakes and enlarges existing ones, heightening the potential for outbursts. Areas such as Sikkim, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Arunachal Pradesh, Jammu and Kashmir, and Ladakh are particularly at risk.

India’s Vulnerability to GLOFs

India’s susceptibility to GLOFs stems from its unique geography, geology, and climate, combined with a high concentration of population and infrastructure in Himalayan river valleys. A 2020 study published in Water Resources Research assessed 329 glacial lakes in the Indian Himalayas, revealing that approximately 22 per cent posed high or very high hazard levels regarding potential outbursts and their downstream impacts.

The steep terrain of the Himalayas exacerbates the situation, as water released from high altitudes can gain momentum while travelling through narrow valleys, transforming into destructive torrents. Communities located far downstream can suffer severe consequences, even if the lake itself is situated in a remote area.

Furthermore, the expansion of infrastructure, including hydropower projects, roads, and settlements along Himalayan rivers, increases exposure to potential flooding. Climate change further complicates the issue, with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) warning that rising temperatures and altered precipitation patterns may lead to increased glacial lake formation and a higher frequency of outburst floods.

While GLOFs cannot always be prevented, their impacts can be mitigated through continuous monitoring of vulnerable lakes, early-warning systems, and the development of flood-resilient infrastructure. Following past disasters, India has enhanced its monitoring and assessment of at-risk glacial lakes, recognising that such hazards transcend national borders and require comprehensive disaster preparedness strategies.

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The ultra run aims to attract both domestic and international runners to experience Uttarakhand’s challenging Himalayan terrain. The initiative is part of a broader strategy to enhance adventure tourism in the state’s border regions, which are known for their natural beauty and cultural significance.

During the event, Dhami honoured the winners of the 70-km and 42-km categories, acknowledging their efforts and encouraging participants who had travelled from various states to take part. He emphasised that competing in the high Himalayas requires not only physical stamina but also mental resilience, given the difficult terrain, adverse weather conditions, and low oxygen levels.

Focus on Border Tourism

Chief Minister Dhami highlighted that the Adi Kailash Parikrama Run serves as a platform to promote the natural beauty and cultural heritage of Uttarakhand’s border areas. The inaugural edition of the event in 2023 saw participation from over 700 runners, indicating a growing interest in such activities. Dhami noted that the increase in Inner Line Permits issued for the Adi Kailash region compared to the previous year reflects a rising enthusiasm among tourists and pilgrims.

The state government aims to leverage tourism as a means to bolster local economies and create employment opportunities for youth in remote areas. Dhami pointed out that events like the ultra run can stimulate local businesses, including homestays, transport services, and food establishments, thereby enhancing the economic landscape of these regions.

Additionally, he referred to the Centre’s Vibrant Villages Programme, which focuses on improving infrastructure and livelihood opportunities in border settlements. This initiative aligns with the state’s objective of promoting sustainable tourism in these areas.

Wider Adventure Tourism Initiatives

Uttarakhand is actively promoting a variety of adventure activities, including trekking, mountaineering, river rafting, kayaking, paragliding, mountain cycling, and angling. Earlier this year, an ultra-running event was also organised in Niti Valley, demonstrating the state’s commitment to expanding adventure tourism. Popular tourist destinations such as Auli, Munsiyari, Rishikesh, and Tehri are being developed to accommodate a wider range of adventure activities.

Dhami stated that the unique Himalayan landscape and rich cultural heritage present significant opportunities for tourism growth while simultaneously supporting local livelihoods. The government’s focus on adventure tourism is intended to attract more visitors, thereby enhancing the overall economic development of the region.

During the event in Gunji, members of the Rang community welcomed the chief minister in traditional attire. Dhami also recognised the contributions of personnel from the Indian Army, Indo-Tibetan Border Police, and Sashastra Seema Bal for their support in organising the event. Among those present were Ashok Singh Nabiyal, vice-chairman of the Uttarakhand Tribal Advisory Council, tourism secretary Dhiraj Singh Garbyal, chief development officer Dr Deepak Saini, security personnel, local representatives, and various officials.

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कौन-कौन से क्षेत्र प्रभावित हुए?

NCS की मंथली रिपोर्ट में बताया गया है कि अगस्त में भारत के हिमालयी क्षेत्र में 63 भूकंप के झटके आए। इसके अलावा लद्दाख, जम्मू-कश्मीर और हिमाचल प्रदेश के क्षेत्रों में भी 36 घटनाएं रिकॉर्ड हुईं। अफगानिस्तान में 26 और नेपाल में 10 भूकंप महसूस किए गए। ऐसे में सवाल उठता है कि क्या ये भूकंप किसी बड़ी आपदा का संकेत हैं।

नेपाली बाढ़ और उसका प्रभाव

नेपाल में 26 अगस्त को आई भीषण बाढ़ में मरने वालों की संख्या 1000 से ऊपर पहुंच चुकी है, जबकि 4 हजार से ज्यादा लोग अब भी लापता बताए जा रहे हैं। बाढ़ प्रभावित क्षेत्रों में रेस्क्यू ऑपरेशन लगातार जारी है। मलबे के नीचे शवों का पता लगाने के लिए स्निफर डॉग्स की मदद भी ली जा रही है, यही नहीं, जो मकान सुरक्षित बचे हैं, वहां लोग लौटकर अपनी सफाई कर रहे हैं।

हिमालय में भूकंप की तीव्रता

NCS की रिपोर्ट बताती है कि अधिकतर भूकंप कम तीव्रता के थे, मगर 13 अगस्त को लद्दाख में 5.5 तीव्रता का भूकंप महसूस किया गया। इसी दिन 4.3 तीव्रता के और भूकंप के झटके भी आए। हिमाचल और जम्मू-कश्मीर के इलाकों में भी भूकंप की घटनाएं सामने आई हैं। इस महीने इतनी घटनाओं से सवाल यह उठ सकता है कि क्या ये एक बड़े संकट की ओर संकेत कर रहे हैं।

क्या यह संकेत है किसी बड़े संकट का?

हालांकि अधिकतर भूकंप का प्रभाव कम था, लेकिन अब एक ही महीने में इतने भूकंप के झटके आने से संदेह उत्पन्न होता है कि क्या यह बहुत बड़ी त्रासदी की तरफ इशारा कर रहा है। नेपाल में आई बाढ़ और उसके साथ आए भूकंप की घटनाएं इस बात का स्पष्ट संकेत हो सकती हैं कि हमें सतर्क रहने की आवश्यकता है।

भविष्य में संभावित घटनाओं की चिंता

झटकों के लगातार आगमन से वैज्ञानिकों को यह चिंता है कि क्या आने वाले दिनों में और भी बड़े भूकंप आ सकते हैं। इससे न केवल हिमालय के क्षेत्र में, बल्कि आसपास के सभी इलाकों के लोगों पर गंभीर प्रभाव पड़ सकता है। यह निश्चित रूप से एक गंभीर विषय है जिन पर आगे ध्यान देने की आवश्यकता है।

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The flash floods, which occurred on August 26, were reportedly caused by the collapse of ice and rock near the Nepal-Tibet border. This calamity has led to extensive destruction of towns and villages in both northern and central Nepal. As per the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Authority, by Tuesday, the death toll had tragically reached 1,050, with an alarming number of nearly 4,000 individuals still unaccounted for, including 583 foreign nationals and 83 security personnel.

Details of the Flood Incident

Shah articulated that experts have determined the flash flood in the Bhotekoshi River was due to a significant avalanche of rock and ice in the Himalayas, highlighting the necessity for local residents to exercise increased vigilance. He noted that, according to specialists, this flood could have been instigated by a considerable section of a glacier breaking off from a height, thus precipitating the major flood and ongoing melting in the affected area.

The Prime Minister elaborated that as the water cascaded down from the Himalayan heights into Nepal, it accumulated momentum, resulting in widespread destruction in lower-lying regions. Shah stated that the government is currently engaged in extensive search and rescue missions, relief and rehabilitation efforts, as well as providing medical treatment and psychological support to affected individuals.

Emphasising the broader implications, he remarked that this incident underscores the escalating risks associated with climate change in the Himalayan area and the pressing necessity for a unified and robust global response. This perspective aims to raise awareness regarding the vulnerability of the region due to climatic alterations that might continue to exacerbate the frequency and severity of natural disasters.

Government Response and Future Considerations

In the wake of this disaster, the government has mobilised resources to facilitate immediate assistance to those impacted by the floods. Ongoing rescue operations aim to locate the thousands who remain missing, while medical facilities are being set up to address the healthcare needs of survivors. The Prime Minister’s statements highlight a growing concern about the influence of climate change, suggesting an imperative for national and international dialogue to mitigate similar disasters in the future.

Shah’s appeal for a collective global action ahead of international forums reflects the urgency of the situation. He contended that collaborative efforts are essential to address the consequences of climate change and protect vulnerable populations in affected regions. The incident serves as a stark reminder not only of the immediate fallout from extreme weather events but also the long-term challenges posed by climate change in mountainous terrains.

This situation urges stakeholders, including local authorities, national governments, and international organisations, to prioritise efforts directed towards disaster risk reduction and adaptive strategies. Further discussions on climate change effect are expected to shape future policies and responses to safeguard communities against such threats, marking a pivotal moment in the nation’s approach to environmental issues.

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By the end of August, Nepal’s Disaster Management Authority had confirmed 734 to 800 dead and roughly 2,500 to 3,000 missing, most of them believed buried under debris or swept downstream. Sixteen more died and over 500 were reported missing in Tibet’s Gyirong County on the Chinese side. Foreign ministries scrambled: India sent an 11-member tunnel rescue team, China sent its own, and even the White House offered help. Nepal’s foreign minister used the moment to call, publicly and pointedly, for a global crackdown on climate change.

That single line matters more than it might seem. A small, poor, landlocked country just lost close to a thousand citizens to a hazard it did not create and cannot mitigate alone. This is worth sitting with before moving to policy.

The science: this was not a monsoon flood

It is important to be precise about what this disaster was, because getting the mechanism wrong leads to the wrong prevention strategy. Nepal’s deadly floods of 2024 were driven by heavy monsoon rainfall hitting unplanned settlements on floodplains, a conventional hydrological disaster made worse by bad urban planning. The 2026 event was different in kind. It was very likely a Glacial Lake Outburst Flood, or GLOF, triggered by a sudden glacier collapse rather than by rainfall.

A GLOF happens when water trapped by a glacier or dammed behind a moraine of loose rock and ice, is released all at once, either because the dam fails, is overtopped, or because a rockfall or ice collapse displaces enough water to send it over the top. The International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development, ICIMOD, has mapped more than 25,000 glacial lakes across the Hindu Kush Himalaya region, and classifies over 200 of them as genuinely dangerous because they sit above populated valleys and major roads. Nepal alone has recorded more than 90 GLOFs since the 1920s, five of them in the Everest region.

This is not a new or speculative field of science. The 1985 Dig Tsho GLOF in the Khumbu Himal destroyed a nearly finished hydropower project. The 1994 Lugge Tsho GLOF in Bhutan is a standard case study in glaciology journals. The Kedarnath disaster in Uttarakhand in 2013 and the South Lhonak GLOF in Sikkim in 2023, which wiped out the Teesta III dam, are both well documented in Indian government reports. Researchers publishing in the Journal of Glaciology this year project a threefold increase in GLOF risk across the Himalaya by the end of the century as warming accelerates glacier retreat. A separate study of a glacial lake in Ladakh found it expanded by 78.7 percent over 22 years while its feeding glacier shrank by 13.2 percent in the same period. These are measured numbers, not projections built on assumption.

None of this means every GLOF is individually predictable to the day. Glacier collapses involve structural failure in ice under stress, and pinpointing the exact moment is genuinely hard. But knowing that a valley sits below a swelling, unstable lake, and that the frequency of these events is rising as the region warms, is not hard at all. That is a mapping and monitoring problem, and it has a known fix.

Could this have been prevented?

Partially, yes, and that is the uncomfortable part. ICIMOD’s own strategic framework for GLOF risk reduction lists the standard toolkit: hazard mapping of dangerous lakes, early warning systems with sensors and sirens tied to real-time monitoring, engineered interventions like controlled drainage channels and reinforced spillways to lower lake volumes before they become catastrophic, revised building codes for settlements in the flood path, and community-level evacuation drills. None of this is exotic. Nepal itself pioneered some of this after the 1985 Dig Tsho disaster, and again after the 2021 Melamchi flood, which should have been the wake-up call that pushed systematic monitoring across every major river basin fed by Himalayan glaciers.

It clearly did not happen at the scale needed. The Langtang Lirung sector had no early warning infrastructure that gave downstream communities meaningful notice. Settlements continued to grow along the Trishuli corridor. The Gyirong Port complex, a major cross-border trade facility, sat directly in the flood’s path with no protective works. This is a governance failure layered on top of a geological one. Glacier collapse is a natural hazard. A trade complex and dozens of villages sitting unprotected in its direct path, decades after the danger were documented, is a policy choice.

The transboundary dimension makes this worse. The glacier that failed straddles territory close to the China-Nepal border, and the flood hit both countries within minutes of each other, yet there is no binding, functioning joint monitoring system between Nepal, China and India for glacial lakes that threaten all three. ICIMOD has spent years trying to build exactly this kind of regional cooperation platform. It has never received the funding, political priority or cross-border data sharing needed to become an actual early warning network rather than a research body. Geopolitics between India and China, and the general caution both countries exercise around sharing data near sensitive border regions, has made this harder than it should be. A hazard that does not recognize the Line of Actual Control is being managed by institutions that very much do.

Bashing the ‘climate change deniers’, with numbers

There is still a strain of commentary, some of it from otherwise serious people, that treats any single disaster as too small a data point to say anything about climate change and treats the broader warming trend itself as unsettled or exaggerated. The data does not support that comfort. Long-term temperature records show an accelerating warming trend from around 1980 onward, after decades of relative stability and even some cooling in the 1960s and 70s. Glacier retreat across the Hindu Kush Himalaya is not a model projection, it is measured on the ground and from satellites, year after year, lake by lake. The Ladakh case above is one of dozens of similar studies showing the same pattern: lakes expanding, glaciers shrinking, and outburst risk climbing in step.

Sea level projections for Mumbai, discussed below, are not activist talking points either. They come from oceanographic and remote sensing research published in peer reviewed journals, using multiple emissions scenarios, and they converge on the same broad conclusion regardless of which model is used. When the mechanism is this well established and the on-ground measurements match the models this closely, treating climate change as a matter of opinion is not skepticism, it is simply ignoring the instruments. The people who pay for that gap in understanding are rarely the ones making policy from air-conditioned rooms. They are Himalayan villagers, Sikkimese dam workers, and Mumbai slum residents.

Where the global accords fall short?

The Paris Agreement set emissions targets but has no binding mechanism to fund glacial monitoring in Nepal or drainage upgrades in Mumbai. The Loss and Damage Fund agreed at COP28 was meant to address exactly this kind of harm, disasters that poor, low-emitting countries suffer because of a crisis they did not cause, but it remains chronically underfunded relative to even conservative damage estimates, and disbursement has been slow and bureaucratic. The Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction, the main global agreement on early warning systems and hazard mapping, is voluntary and has no enforcement teeth. Countries sign it, cite it in reports, and then fail to fund the monitoring stations it recommends.

This is the pattern worth naming plainly. Global climate governance has become very good at producing frameworks, communiqués and pledges, and much less good at putting sensors on glacial lakes or fixing storm drains. Nepal’s foreign minister asking for a global climate crackdown after burying hundreds of citizens is not rhetoric, it is a fair description of a system that keeps promising and keeps under-delivering.

Lessons for India

India does not need to imagine this scenario; it has already lived a version of it. The 2023 South Lhonak GLOF in Sikkim, triggered by a similar lake failure, destroyed the Teesta III dam and killed dozens. The 2013 Kedarnath disaster in Uttarakhand, though driven more by extreme rainfall than a glacier collapse, exposed the same pattern of unregulated construction in a known hazard zone. Studies of Ladakh and Jammu and Kashmir show glacial lakes there are expanding just as fast as in Nepal. India has the scientific capacity, through IIT Bombay, the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology and the Geological Survey of India, to run a serious glacial lake monitoring programme across its own Himalayan states. What it needs is sustained funding and a willingness to restrict hydropower and tourism development in mapped hazard zones, even when that is politically unpopular with state governments chasing revenue.

Lessons for Bhutan

Bhutan is smaller and more exposed than either neighbour. Its 1994 Lugge Tsho GLOF is one of the most cited case studies in the field precisely because the country’s glacial lakes sit close to its main population centres. Bhutan has comparatively strong environmental governance by regional standards, but a small state with a small budget cannot build a full monitoring network alone. Its safest path is deeper integration into a genuinely functional regional platform, most plausibly through ICIMOD, rather than depending on ad hoc bilateral goodwill from Delhi or Beijing.

Lessons for Mumbai, a different hazard with the same failure

Mumbai will not suffer a glacial lake outburst. Its danger is the opposite end of the same warming system: rising seas rather than melting mountains. Projections published in Scientific Reports show Mumbai and Kolkata facing the highest coastal flood risk among major Indian cities under high emissions scenarios, with sea level rise estimates of 24 to 66 centimetres by 2100 and a real possibility that the Arabian Sea floods parts of the city at least once a year by 2050. The city is also sinking, at roughly 2 millimetres annually according to IIT Bombay studies, which compounds every centimetre of sea level rise. A Nature-published study found that around 8 percent of monsoon deaths in Mumbai are rainfall related, and 80 percent of those deaths occur among people living in slums, with children under five and women facing the highest risk. Recent satellite flood mapping shows Chembur West, Matunga and Ghatkopar as the worst-hit wards.

The mechanism is different from Nepal’s. The governance failure is nearly identical. Mumbai has kept building on reclaimed land, encroaching on mangroves and salt pans that would otherwise absorb storm surge, much as Nepal kept building in glacial flood paths. The Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation, one of the richest civic bodies in Asia, still runs a drainage network that studies say is decades out of date, while structural flood measures like emergency food supplies get more attention than the harder, less visible fix of upgrading storm drains and protecting natural buffers. Strengthening that drainage network alone, according to the city’s own climate risk analysis, could cut flood losses by more than 70 percent. That number should embarrass every civic budget meeting where drainage upgrades get deferred for another year.

The actual lesson

Glacial collapse in Rasuwa and rising tides in Mahim are not separate stories. Both are downstream consequences of the same warming trend, both were foreseeable in general terms decades in advance, and both were left to unregulated development and underfunded monitoring because prevention is expensive now and disasters are expensive later, and politics almost always prefers later. Nepal, India, Bhutan and coastal Indian cities like Mumbai are bound by the same rivers, the same monsoon system and increasingly the same climate risk. Treating disaster preparedness as a national afterthought rather than a funded, regional, scientifically driven priority is the one choice that keeps repeating across every one of these disasters, and it is the one choice fully within the control of governments, unlike the glacier itself.

Views of the author are personal and do not necessarily represent the website’s views.

Dr. Jaimine Vaishnav is a faculty of geopolitics and world economy and other liberal arts subjects, a researcher with publications in SCI and ABDC journals, and an author of 6 books specializing in informal economies, mass media, and street entrepreneurship. With over a decade of experience as an academic and options trader, he is keen on bridging the grassroots business practices with global economic thought. His work emphasizes resilience, innovation, and human action in everyday human life. He can be contacted on jaiminism@hotmail.co.in for further communication.

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The International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) has released a Monsoon Outlook indicating that several countries in this area, including India, Nepal, Bhutan, and Pakistan, may experience insufficient monsoon rainfall this year. Concurrently, temperatures are expected to remain significantly higher than usual across many parts of the region, compounding potential issues.

Concerns Over Weather-Related Hazards

The Indian Meteorological Department has projected that the monsoon for 2026 will not meet ideal rainfall levels, raising concerns for water supply and agriculture. This situation is significant as the vast Himalayan mountains may also face a decrease in monsoon rains, which could lead to increased disaster risks. Experts warn that even with a weaker monsoon, the occurrence of short bursts of intense rainfall can pose severe threats.

Manish Shrestha, a hydrologist at ICIMOD, has highlighted the dangers of sudden, heavy rainfall occurring amidst longer dry spells. This unpredictable weather can lead to flash floods, landslides, and debris flows, especially in mountainous areas where the communities are highly susceptible to such events. The situation calls for imminent attention from both local authorities and residents to heed short-term forecasts and prepare accordingly.

This warning comes shortly after ICIMOD revealed that snow cover in the Hindu Kush Himalaya has reached a record low for the fourth consecutive year. Reduced snow cover is problematic as it affects the water availability in rivers and groundwater, further exacerbating the monsoon’s implications.

Multi-Faceted Challenges Ahead

Scientists attribute the diminishing snow cover, increased temperatures, and erratic rainfall patterns to a rising risk of both drought and flooding within the same monsoon season. This dual threat becomes increasingly critical, particularly for countries like India, where countless individuals depend on monsoon precipitation for agriculture, drinking water, and hydropower generation.

The diminishing predictability of weather extremes presents a pressing dilemma for effective resource management. Experts are advocating for advanced forecasting systems and enhanced disaster preparedness measures as essential steps to cope with the intensified fluctuations due to climate change. The necessity for coordinated regional cooperation is also emphasised to address these mounting challenges.

Saswata Sanyal, a disaster risk reduction specialist at ICIMOD, remarked on the changing landscape of disaster preparedness, noting that the era of expecting predictable weather hazards is over. He stressed the importance of anticipatory actions and early warning systems to act as fundamental pillars in responding effectively to these unpredictable challenges.

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Hanging glaciers differ from their larger valley counterparts, as they precariously cling to steep slopes, often suspended above valleys. The sudden collapse of these glaciers can lead to significant events such as avalanches, debris flows, and glacial lake outburst floods. Through the utilisation of satellite imagery, terrain analysis, and hazard modelling, the researchers created a detailed inventory of these glaciers within the Indian Himalayas.

Mapping Findings and Their Implications

The comprehensive study revealed that many of the mapped hanging glaciers are situated above populated valleys, roads, and hydropower facilities. Importantly, the research indicates that while some glaciers lie above other ice masses, reducing the immediate risk of collapse, several are positioned directly over exposed slopes or river valleys, significantly increasing their danger to nearby human settlements.

The areas surrounding Joshimath and Vishnuprayag have been identified as critical hotspots where clusters of large hanging glaciers coincide with dense human activities. Already regarded as geologically fragile, these regions face heightened risks due to the presence of unstable ice masses, which could exacerbate the severity of future disasters.

This study also underscores the influence of climate change on glacier instability. The rise in temperatures is weakening glacier structures, while freeze-thaw cycles are making slopes more susceptible to failure. Expanding infrastructure, such as roads and hydropower projects, further increases exposure to these high-risk zones.

Urgent Need for Monitoring and Risk Management

The researchers assert that this danger is not merely theoretical. Recent glacier-related collapses in the Himalayas have led to cascading disasters, where initial ice falls result in floods and landslides downstream. These events often occur suddenly, leaving little time for local populations to evacuate.

The findings stress the urgent necessity for continuous monitoring, the establishment of early warning systems, and risk-informed planning in the Himalayan regions. Experts recommend that the mapping of hazardous glaciers be integrated into development planning, particularly in ecologically sensitive areas.

As India’s infrastructure continues to expand in mountainous regions, this study serves as a crucial reminder that the Himalayas are not only experiencing rising temperatures but are also becoming increasingly unstable. The associated risks remain a pressing concern for vulnerable communities situated in the shadow of these hanging glaciers.

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This late snowfall and winter precipitation in the Himalayas are signs of weaker western disturbances and increasing temperatures. Recently there has been very little snowfall in Jammu and Kashmir and Ladak and whatever snow fall happened that melted quickly rather than forming a stable layer, which is a key source for water systems through the year in Ladakh.

Why is the snowfall in March unusual?

In Ladakh, snowfall usually happens between December and February. This snow accumulated and melted slowly, helping to feed streams, recharge groundwater and keep the springs alive even in summer. But now the unusual snowfall and precipitation are slowly shifting the rhythm and are not very helpful for the valley. Snowfall is disappearing quickly after arrival, causing the valley to remain dry.  The immediate consequences of this untimely snowfall and quick melting are visible: the groundwater reserve has started weakening, springs are drying up, and farming has been affected as a result. This has caused a huge water risk.

Indirect effect on glaciers

The rate at which the glaciers are melting increases the chance of flooding. Farmers are already started feeling the stress, especially the farmers cultivating apricots. Since apricot trees mostly depend on winter chill and erratic weather, there has been a 20-40 percent reduction in cultivation. Scientists suggest that even a small drop in snowfall can destabilize the snowpacks on mountain slopes, leading to flood stress.

While scientists and researchers hint at fast-approaching climate change, the people of Ladakh face it every day. While the late snowfall looks picturesque, it signals that the climate is changing fast.

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